Download Canadá, México, US 2014: URBAN FUTURES RAL-NCAR

Canadá, México, US 2014:
IMPACTOS, ADAPTACION, Y VULNERABILIDAD
Congreso: La Ciencia del Cambio Climático en México
Patricia Romero-Lankao
URBAN FUTURES RAL-NCAR
***********
www.ral.ucar.edu/urban-futures
North America: chapter writing team
Lead Authors: Patricia Romero-Lankao (Mexico), Joel Smith (US)
Lead Authors: Debra Davidson (Canada), Noah Diffenbaugh (US), Patrick Kinney
(US), Paul Kirshen (US), Paul Kovacs (Canada), Lourdes Villers Ruiz (Mexico)
Review Editors: Ana Rosa Moreno (Mexico), Linda Mortsch (Canada)
Contributing authors: William Anderegg (US), Jessie Carr (US), Anthony Cheng
(US), Thea Dickinson (Canada), Ellen Douglas (US), Rob de Loë (Canada), Hallie
Eakin (US), Daniel M. Gnatz (US), Mary Hayden (US), Maria Eugenia Ibarraran
Viniegra (Mexico), Elena Jiménez Cisneros (Mexico), Michael D. Meyer (US),
Amrutasri Nori-Sarma (India), Landy Sánchez Peña (Mexico), Catherine Ngo (US),
Greg Oulahen (Canada), Diana Pape (US), Ana Peña del Valle (Mexico), Roger
Pulwarty (US), Ashlinn Quinn (US), Daniel Runfola (US), Fabiola S. SosaRodrigquez (Mexico), Bradley H. Udall (US), Fiona Warren (Canada), Kate
Weinberger (US), Tom Wilbanks (US)
IMPACTOS
CLIMA
Vulnerabilidad
DESARROLLO
Patrones de
Desarrollo
Socioeconómico
Variabilidad
Natural
Amenazas
RIESGO
Cambio
Climático
Antropogénico
Exposición
EMISIONES
Usos del suelo
Acciones
Adaptación
Mitigación
Governanza
IMPACTOS CLIMATICOS
OBSERVADOS
GENERALIZADOS
OBSERVED IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE WIDESPREAD
AND CONSEQUENTIAL
Y SUBSTANCIALES
POBLACIONES, SOCIEDADES
Y ECOSYSTEMAS MUNDIALES
VULNERABLES
Y EXPUESTOS
EN DISTINTAS FORMAS
PEOPLE, SOCIETIES,
AND ECOSYSTEMS
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABLE
AND EXPOSED
IN DIFFERENT WAYS
Impacts from recent
climate-related
extremes reveal
significant
vulnerability of
North America
Los impactos de
eventos climáticos
extremos muestran
el alto grado de
vulnerabilidad de
Norteamérica
This figure offers a graphic illustration of location of extreme events and
relevant vulnerability trends. The observed extreme events have not
been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, yet they are climatesensitive sources of impact illustrating vulnerability of exposed systems,
particularly if projected future increases in the frequency and/or
intensity of such events should materialize
Missing are context specific determinants of
capacities within and across communities,
sectors, and ecosystems
Mexico is already vulnerable to current
climate variability and change
Figure 9.1. The total number of hydro-meteorological disaster events, 2005-2010 (Source: Runfola,
Romero-Lankao, Jiang, Nawrotski, and Sanchez 2014)
Disenventar – one of the best sources for environmental impacts available. Improvements on this
product would allow for significant advancements in risk studies
DE MANTENERSE EL ALTO
NIVEL DE EMISIONES
IRREVERSIBLES
LOS RIESGOS DEL
CAMBIO CLIMATICO
RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED
HIGH EMISSIONS
Norteamérica
Projected changes in extremes
Cambios proyectados en extremos
A MAYOR CALENTAMIENTO
MAYOR PROBABILIDAD DE
IMPACTOS SEVEROS Y
PROFUNDOS
INCREASING MAGNITUDES
OF WARMING INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE AND
PERVASIVE IMPACTS
Floods/Inundaciones
Wildfires/Incendios
Water/agua
Dislocación de infraestructuras costeras
Animales marinos/Marine animals
Food security/seguridad alimentaria
Salud urbana/urban health
Animales terrestres Land animals
CAMBIO CLIMATICO
UN RETO A LA GESTION DE
RIESGO
CLIMATE CHANGE
A CHALLENGE IN
MANAGING RISKS
Approaches
for managing
the risks of
climate
change
https://www.google.com
ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURING
Agriculture in Mexico
• Much of Mexico’s landbase is already marginal
– Severe desertification due to non-climate drivers
– Farmers are considered highly vulnerable
– High livelihood risks due to limited access to credit
and insurance
• Market forces and technical feasibility alone are
insufficient to foster sectoral-level adaptation
• Institutional support is key, found to be
inadequate in many contexts
Climate Responses in Mexico City, New York and
Vancouver
• Frontrunners faced with multiple risks
• Their climate plans are far reaching
• Adaptation planning faces many challenges
• multi-jurisdictional governance structures
• conflicts in priorities & objectives between various actors and
sectors (e.g., pro growth policies take precedence)
Uncertainties, Knowledge Gaps, and Research Needs
• The literature on VIA in North America has grown considerably
• While US and Canada have produced large volumes of literature,
Mexico lags well behind
• Literature dominated by sector level analyses
• Placed-based, integrated approaches are needed exploring
• How climate change interacts with other physical and social
processes to create differential risks and impact levels.
• Context-specific physical and social factors shaping differences
in vulnerability of exposed systems and sectors
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
A MORE VIBRANT WORLD