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Análisis
30 abr. 2014
Comunicado de la Fed (FOMC)
COMUNICADO DE PRENSA DEL FOMC: 30 de abril de 2014.
1.- Esquema del mensaje y diferencias con el anterior.Anterior: Mensaje del 19 de marzo de 2014
Information received since the Federal Open
Market Committee met in January indicates that
growth in economic activity slowed during the
winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather
conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed
but on balance showed further improvement. The
unemployment rate, however, remains elevated.
Household
spending
and
business
fixed
investment continued to advance, while the
recovery in the housing sector remained slow.
Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth,
although the extent of restraint is diminishing.
Inflation has been running below the Committee's
longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation
expectations have remained stable.
Actual: Mensaje del 30 de abril de 2014
Information received since the Federal Open Market
Committee met in March indicates that growth in
economic activity has picked up recently, after having
slowed sharply during the winter in part because of
adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators
were mixed but on balance showed further
improvement. The unemployment rate, however,
remains elevated. Household spending appears to be
rising more quickly. Business fixed investment edged
down, while the recovery in the housing sector
remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic
growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing.
Inflation has been running below the Committee's
longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation
expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the
Committee seeks to foster maximum employment
and price stability. The Committee expects that,
with appropriate policy accommodation, economic
activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor
market conditions will continue to improve
gradually, moving toward those the Committee
judges consistent with its dual mandate. The
Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the
economy and the labor market as nearly balanced.
The
Committee
recognizes
that
inflation
persistently below its 2 percent objective could
pose risks to economic performance, and it is
monitoring inflation developments carefully for
evidence that inflation will move back toward its
objective over the medium term.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee
seeks to foster maximum employment and price
stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate
policy accommodation, economic activity will expand
at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will
continue to improve gradually, moving toward those
the Committee judges consistent with its dual
mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook
for the economy and the labor market as nearly
balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation
persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose
risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring
inflation developments carefully for evidence that
inflation will move back toward its objective over the
medium term.
The Committee currently judges that there is
sufficient underlying strength in the broader
economy to support ongoing improvement in
labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative
progress toward maximum employment and the
improvement in the outlook for labor market
conditions since the inception of the current asset
purchase program, the Committee decided to
make a further measured reduction in the pace of
its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the
Committee will add to its holdings of agency
mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion
per month rather than $30 billion per month, and
will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury
securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather
than $35 billion per month. The Committee is
maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency
debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in
agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling
over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The
Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings
of longer-term securities should maintain
downward pressure on longer-term interest rates,
support mortgage markets, and help to make
broader
financial
conditions
more
accommodative, which in turn should promote a
stronger economic recovery and help to ensure
that inflation, over time, is at the rate most
consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient
underlying strength in the broader economy to support
ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In
light of the cumulative progress toward maximum
employment and the improvement in the outlook for
labor market conditions since the inception of the
current asset purchase program, the Committee
decided to make a further measured reduction in the
pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in May, the
Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgagebacked securities at a pace of $20 billion per month
rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its
holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of
$25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per
month. The Committee is maintaining its existing
policy of reinvesting principal payments from its
holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed
securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.
The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of
longer-term securities should maintain downward
pressure on longer-term interest rates, support
mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial
conditions more accommodative, which in turn should
promote a stronger economic recovery and help to
ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most
consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
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Equipo de Análisis de Bankinter
(Sujetos al RIC)
http://www.bankinter.com/
Ramón Forcada
Jesús Amador Castrillo Pilar Aranda
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Eva del Barrio
Ana de Castro
Rafael Alonso
Todos los informes disponibles en:
https://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+asesoramiento
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=NRAP&subs=NRAP&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
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Análisis
30 abr. 2014
Comunicado de la Fed (FOMC)
The Committee will closely monitor incoming
information
on
economic
and
financial
developments in coming months and will
continue its purchases of Treasury and agency
mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other
policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for
the labor market has improved substantially in a
context of price stability. If incoming information
broadly supports the Committee's expectation of
ongoing improvement in labor market conditions
and inflation moving back toward its longer-run
objective, the Committee will likely reduce the
pace of asset purchases in further measured steps
at future meetings. However, asset purchases are
not on a preset course, and the Committee's
decisions about their pace will remain contingent
on the Committee's outlook for the labor market
and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely
efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum
employment and price stability, the Committee
today reaffirmed its view that a highly
accommodative stance of monetary policy
remains appropriate. In determining how long to
maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range
for the federal funds rate, the Committee will
assess progress--both realized and expected-toward its objectives of maximum employment
and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take
into account a wide range of information,
including measures of labor market conditions,
indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations,
and
readings
on
financial
developments. The Committee continues to
anticipate, based on its assessment of these
factors, that it likely will be appropriate to
maintain the current target range for the federal
funds rate for a considerable time after the asset
purchase program ends, especially if projected
inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2
percent longer-run goal, and provided that longerterm inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove
policy accommodation, it will take a balanced
approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
The Committee currently anticipates that, even
after employment and inflation are near
mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions
may, for some time, warrant keeping the target
federal funds rate below levels the Committee
views as normal in the longer run. With the
unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the
Committee has updated its forward guidance. The
change in the Committee's guidance does not
indicate any change in the Committee's policy
intentions as set forth in its recent statements.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming
information on economic and financial developments
in coming months and will continue its purchases of
Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and
employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the
outlook for the labor market has improved
substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming
information broadly supports the Committee's
expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market
conditions and inflation moving back toward its longerrun objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace
of asset purchases in further measured steps at future
meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset
course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace
will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for
the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment
of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum
employment and price stability, the Committee today
reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance
of
monetary
policy
remains
appropriate.
In
determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4
percent target range for the federal funds rate, the
Committee will assess progress--both realized and
expected--toward
its
objectives
of
maximum
employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment
will take into account a wide range of information,
including measures of labor market conditions,
indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial developments.
The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its
assessment of these factors, that it likely will be
appropriate to maintain the current target range for
the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the
asset purchase program ends, especially if projected
inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2
percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term
inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy
accommodation, it will take a balanced approach
consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum
employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee
currently anticipates that, even after employment and
inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic
conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the
target federal funds rate below levels the Committee
views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were:
Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice
Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota;
Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell;
Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
http://broker.bankinter.com/
Equipo de Análisis de Bankinter
(Sujetos al RIC)
http://www.bankinter.com/
Ramón Forcada
Jesús Amador Castrillo Pilar Aranda
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Eva del Barrio
Ana de Castro
Rafael Alonso
Todos los informes disponibles en:
https://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+asesoramiento
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=NRAP&subs=NRAP&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho del su ratón.
Avda. Bruselas, 12
28108 Alcobendas
Madrid
Análisis
30 abr. 2014
Comunicado de la Fed (FOMC)
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were:
Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice
Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto;
Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C.
Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the
action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported
the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth
paragraph weakens the credibility of the
Committee's commitment to return inflation to
the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy
uncertainty that hinders economic activity.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20
140319a.htm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/2014043
0a.htm
2.- Decisión de política monetaria.:: La Fed continúa con la reducción de su Programa de Compra de Activos en -10.000M$/mes hasta comprar a
razón de 45.000M$/mes (20.000M$ en MBS y 25.000M$ en Bonos del Tesoro). A partir del mes de mayo se hará
efectiva esta reducción.
:: Mantiene el tipo de interés de referencia en 0%/0,25%, tal y como se esperaba. Reiteran que cualquier
movimiento en los tipos de interés queda ligado a que se alcance máximo empleo y a que la inflación se sitúe en
niveles similares al objetivo establecido por la institución: 2%. Por otra parte, además de ambas variables, se
tendrá en cuenta otros indicadores que aporten información adicional.
:: La Fed reitera que la política monetaria continuará siendo acomodaticia por un tiempo prolongado una vez
que haya finalizado el Programa de Compra de Activos. Además, sugiere que no descarta reducir activos a un
ritmo superior al actual (-10.000M$/mes) si la inflación se acerca al objetivo de 2% y si el empleo continúa
mejorando con cierta contundencia.
:: Los nueve miembros de la institución votaron de manera unánime esta decisión.
3.- Visión sobre la economía.La opinión sobre la economía de los miembros de la institución es más positiva que en trimestres previos.
Consideran que la actividad económica se ha acelerado recientemente y el consumo de los hogares está
repuntando con cierta energía, superando así el primer trimestre del año que fue débil afectado por la
climatología adversa. Hoy se han publicado cifras de PIB 1T´14 que han decepcionado: +0,1% vs +2,6% del
trimestre previo.
La institución estima que la economía norteamericana crecerá a un ritmo moderado, el mercado laboral irá
ganando inercia de manera progresiva y expone que los riesgos son equilibrados.
En cuanto a la inflación, considera que un nivel de precios persistentemente por debajo del 2% puede tener
implicaciones negativas en la economía. Actualmente la inflación se mantiene en niveles reducidos, si bien las
expectativas, considerando un horizonte temporal más amplio, son estables.
4.- Opinión e impacto sobre el mercado.Esta decisión está en línea con las expectativas del consenso de mercado y no ha supuesto sorpresa alguna, por
ello el impacto en el mercado ha sido prácticamente nulo. El S&P500 que cotizaba prácticamente plano antes
del comunicado se mantiene en 1.881 puntos. La rentabilidad del T-Note se reduce en -3 p.b. hasta 2,66%, igual
que antes de la publicación y en Eurodólar se mantiene prácticamente constante en 1,386.
En nuestra opinión es positivo el hecho de que la institución continúe reduciendo el Programa de Expansión
Monetaria incluso después de conocer que la economía tan sólo creció +0,1% en el primer trimestre. Esta actitud
refleja que el débil comienzo de año se ha debido tan sólo a un efecto puntual, la climatología adversa, y que los
miembros del Comité no tienen dudas acerca de la fortaleza de la economía americana.
Por otra parte, es razonable que liguen cualquier movimiento en los tipos de interés a la inflación, pero también
a la evolución del mercado de trabajo. Ya no es sólo importante la Tasa de Paro, sino también otros indicadores
que también son relevantes y que están teniendo una evolución más mediocre, como es el caso de la reducida
tasa de actividad, la elevada tasa de infraempleo o un número de desempleados de larga duración que es muy
alto.
http://broker.bankinter.com/
Equipo de Análisis de Bankinter
(Sujetos al RIC)
http://www.bankinter.com/
Ramón Forcada
Jesús Amador Castrillo Pilar Aranda
Ana Achau (Asesoramiento)
Eva del Barrio
Ana de Castro
Rafael Alonso
Todos los informes disponibles en:
https://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+asesoramiento
Por favor, consulte importantes advertencias legales en:
http://broker.bankinter.com/www/es-es/cgi/broker+binarios?secc=NRAP&subs=NRAP&nombre=disclaimer.pdf
* Si desea acceder directamente al disclaimer seleccione sobre el link la opción "open weblink in Browser" con el botón derecho del su ratón.
Avda. Bruselas, 12
28108 Alcobendas
Madrid