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Snapshot Retail
Madrid & Barcelona 1T / Q1 2016
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 1T 2016
1
ECONOMÍA E
INDICADORES RETAIL
Se prevé que
la economía
española siga
con crecimientos
sólidos durante 2016
superiores al 2%
FUNDAMENTALES ECONÓMICOS SÓLIDOS
INDICADORES
2015
2016 (F)
PIB, var. Anual (%)
3,2
2,7
Consumo privado, var. Anual (%)
3,1
2,9
Tasa de desempleo (%)
20,9
20,2
IPC, var. Anual (%)
-0,5
0,0
Renta disponible, var. Anual (%)
2,4
3,5
Ventas minoristas, var. Anual (%)
3,6
2,9
Crecimiento de Afluencia, var. Anual (%)
1,5
1,9*
* variación Interanual correspondiente al mes de Marzo.
Fuente: Oxford Economics y Experian Footfall Abril 2016
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 1T 2016
RENTAS PRIME
Locales en calle
Centros comerciales
Parques de medianas
255
88
16
2
€/m2/mes
€/m2/mes
€/m2/mes
Crecimiento Renta
4T 2015 - 4T 2016
Escenario de
subida de rentas
gracias a la
recuperación de
la economía
+2%
Fuente: JLL febrero 2016.
Nota: Las rentas Prime analizadas se basan en locales comerciales de 100 m2.
VOLUMEN DE INVERSIÓN RETAIL
4.500
4.000
Millones de €
3.500
3.000
Continúa el
apetito inversor
durante
1T 2016
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1T
2T
3T
Fuente: JLL abril 2016
2016
4T
En 1T de 2016 se han alcanzado los 809 M€ en 13 transacciones, un 30% más en número que en el mismo periodo del año anterior.
PRINCIPALES OPERACIONES 1T 2016
Activo
Precio* (M€)
Vendedor
Comprador
SBA (m2)
358
Eroski
Invesco (HVB)
136.000
Luz del Tajo
92
Sonae Sierra
CBRE Global Investor Partners
40.346
ABC Serrano
Conf.
IBA Capital Partners
CBRE Global Investor Partners
19.643
C / Preciados 9
Conf.
IBA Capital Partners
CBRE Global Investor Partners
2.432
45
Adolfo Dominguez
BMO Real Estate Partners
1.136
Eroski Portfolio
Adolfo Dominguez Paseo de Gracia, 32
*Precio estimado
Nota: Este análisis considera todas las inversiones en Centros y Parques Comerciales, Medianas Comerciales, Factory Outlets, Supermercados y
Locales en Calle en España. Se excluye cualquier inversión < 5 M€.
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 1T 2016
RENTABILIDADES PRIME
LOCALES EN CALLE
8
Rentabilidad Prime (%)
Previsiones
6
4,75
303 bps
4
3,75
203 bps
2
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2014
1T 2016
2013
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
Sigue la
compresión de
yields en T1
2016 debido a la
fuerte demanda
inversora
Fuente: JLL abril 2016
Centros Comerciales
Locales en calle
Bono a 10 años
A pesar de la compresión de yields, estas son superiores a las ofrecidas en otros mercados maduros como Londres o París,
y además el spread respecto al bono es saludable.
PRIME CAPITAL VALUES
Capital Growth - Locales en calle
Crecimiento medio anual (2016-2018)
+0,9%
Capital Growth - Centros Comerciales
Crecimiento medio anual (2016-2018)
+5,9%
Fuente: JLL abril 2016
Buenas
perspectivas de
crecimiento de
capital values
impulsado por el
crecimiento de las
rentas
3
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 1T 2016
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL 1T 2016
PRINCIPALES APERTURAS PREVISTAS 2016
6
4
+305.000
3
m2 de SBA nueva
4
1
2
6
5
Inauguraciones
por debajo de
niveles históricos
7
1. Sambil Outlet
Madrid
SBA
42.830 m2
Promotor
Grupo Sambil
Inauguración
T4 2016
2. IKEA Ciudad Del
Bricolaje Alcorcón
SBA
Promotor
Inauguración
Promotor
85.000 m2
Gral. Galerías Comerciales
Inauguración
Fuente: JLL abril 2016
T4 2016
InterIkea
T2 2016
SBA
SBA
Promotor
Inauguración
66.000 m2
Carrefour Property
T2 2016
10.000 m2
Promotor
Inauguración
6. FAN Mallorca
Shopping
5. Parque Nevada
SBA
62.000 m2
3. PC Sant Feliu
De Llobregat
Caboel
T2 2016
7. Galeón Outlet
SBA
Promotor
Inauguración
10.900 m2
Grupo Numero 1
T2 2016
4. Viladecans The
Style Outlets
SBA
26.500 m2 (1ª Fase)
Promotor
Neinver
Inauguración
T4 2016
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q1 2016
SNAPSHOT
RETAIL
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q1 2016
6
THE ECONOMIC AND
RETAIL INDICATORS
The Spanish
economy is expected
to continue
registering solid
growth of over 2% in
2016
SOLID ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
INDICATORS
2015
2016 (FY)
GDP, YoY change (%)
3.2
2.7
Consumer spending, YoY change (%)
3.1
2.9
Unemployment rate (%)
20.9
20.2
CPI, YoY change (%)
-0.5
0
Disposable income, YoY change (%)
2.4
3.5
Retail sales, YoY change (%)
3.6
2.9
Footfall growth, YoY change (%)
1.5
1.9*
* YoY change for the month of March.
Source: Oxford Economics and Experian Footfall April 2016
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q1 2016
PRIME RENTAL LEVELS
High-Street
Retail Units
Shopping Centres
Retail Warehouses
255
88
16
7
€/sqm/month
€/sqm/month
€/sqm/month
Rental Growth
Q4 2015 - Q4 2016
Scenario of rising
rental levels
thanks to the
economic recovery
+2%
Source: JLL February 2016.
Note: Analysis of prime rental levels based on retail units of 100 sqm.
RETAIL INVESTMENT VOLUME
4,500
4,000
Millons of €
3,500
3,000
Investor appetite
held firm in
Q1 2016
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: JLL, April 2016
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2015
Q3
2016
Q4
€809 million were invested in Q1 2016 in 13 transactions, an increase of 30% versus the number of deals in Q1 2015.
MAIN TRANSACTIONS Q1 2016
Price* (Millions €)
Seller
Buyer
GLA (sqm)
358
Eroski
Invesco (HVB)
136.000
Luz del Tajo
92
Sonae Sierra
CBRE Global Investor Partners
40.346
ABC Serrano
Confidential
IBA Capital Partners
CBRE Global Investor Partners
19.643
C / Preciados 9
Confidential
IBA Capital Partners
CBRE Global Investor Partners
2.432
45
Adolfo Dominguez
BMO Real Estate Partners
1.136
Property
Eroski Portfolio
Adolfo Dominguez Paseo de Gracia, 32
*Estimated price
Note: This analysis encompasses all investments in Shopping Centres, Retail Parks, Big Box Retail, Factory Outlets, Supermarkets and High Street
Retail Units in Spain. It does not include investments for under €5 million.
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q1 2016
PRIME YIELDS
HIGH-STREET RETAIL UNITS
8
Outlook
Prime Yields (%)
6
4.75
Yield compression
continued in Q1
2016 thanks to the
strong investor
demand
303 b.p.
4
3.75
203 b.p.
2
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2014
Q1 2016
2013
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
Source: JLL April 2016
Shopping Centres
High Street Retail Units
10 year bond yield
Despite the yield compression, they are still higher than those offered in other mature markets, such as London and Paris,
and the spread is healthy with respect to bonds.
PRIME CAPITAL VALUES
Capital Growth - High Street
Average annual growth (2016-2018)
+0.9%
Capital Growth - Shopping Centres
Average annual growth (2016-2018)
+5.9%
Source: JLL April 2016
Healthy capital
value growth
forecasts
underpinned
by rising rental
levels
8
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q1 2016
INAUGURATIONS SCHEDULED FOR 2016
9
+305,000
3
sqm of new GLA
4
1
2
6
5
Retail openings
below historic
levels
7
1. Sambil Outlet
Madrid
GLA
42,830 sqm
Developer
Opening
Grupo Sambil
Q4 2016
2. IKEA Ciudad Del
Bricolaje Alcorcón
GLA
85,000 sqm
Developer
Opening
Q2 2016
Opening
6. FAN Mallorca
Shopping
GLA
Developer
Opening
Opening
Source: JLL, April 2016
10,000 sqm
InterIkea
Developer Gral. Galerías Comerciales
Q4 2016
GLA
Developer
5. Parque Nevada
GLA
62,000 sqm
3. PC Sant Feliu
De Llobregat
66,000 sqm
Carrefour Property
Q2 2016
Caboel
Q2 2016
7. Galeón Outlet
GLA
Developer
Opening
10,900 sqm
Grupo Numero 1
Q2 2016
4. Viladecans The
Style Outlets
GLA
26,500 sqm (Phase 1)
Developer
Neinver
Opening
Q4 2016
SNAPSHOT - RETAIL Q1 2016
RETAIL & CAPITAL MARKETS CONTACTS
HEAD OF RETAIL BUSINESS
SPAIN
HEAD OF RETAIL
CAPITAL MARKETS SPAIN
HEAD OF SALES & INVESTMENTS
CAPITAL MARKETS SPAIN
SERGIO FERNANDES
PEDRO DOS REIS
BORJA ORTEGA DE PABLO
sergio.fernandes@eu.jll.com
pedro.dosreis@eu.jll.com
borja.ortega@eu.jll.com
RESEARCH CONTACTS
HEAD OF RESEARCH
SPAIN
RESEARCH ANALYST
SPAIN
ELSA GALINDO
OLGA HORNILLOS
elsa.galindo@eu.jll.com
olga.hornillos@eu.jll.com
JLL OFFICES IN SPAIN
MADRID
BARCELONA
SEVILLA
Pº de la Castellana 79 - 4ª
Pº de la Castellana 130 - 1ª
28046
T+: 91 789 11 00
F+: 91 789 12 00
Pº de Gracia 11 - 4ª esc A
08007
T+: 93 318 53 53
F+: 93 301 29 99
S. Fco. Javier 20 - 3ª. 314
41018
T+: 95 493 46 00
F+: 95 493 46 23
El Blog
@JLLSpain
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