Download Cambio climático y fenómenos extremos

Cambio climático y fenómenos extremos
fenómenos extremos
Carlos Gay García
Carlos
Gay García
Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático
Coordinador
Resumen EPA
Resumen EPA
Projected Impacts by Sector
Projected Change
Agriculture, forestry
Water resources
Human health/
mortality
Industry/settlement/s
ociety
Increased yields in colder
Effects on water
Reduced human mortality
environments; decreased
resources relying on snow from decreased cold
yields in warmer
exposure
melt
environments;
Reduced energy demand
for heating; increased
demand for cooling;
declining air quality in
cities; reduced effects of
snow, ice etc.
Warm spells/heat
waves: frequency
increases over most
land areas
Reduced yields in warmer
Increased water demand;
Increased risk of heatregions due to heat stress
water quality problems,
related mortality
at key devel. stages; fire
e.g., algal blooms
danger increase
Reduction in q
quality
y of life
for people in warm areas
without air conditioning;
impacts on elderly and
very young; reduced
thermoelectric power
production efficiency
Heavy precipitation
events: frequency
increases over most
areas
Damage to crops; soil
erosion, inability to
cultivate land, water
logging of soils
Warmer/fewer cold
days/nights;
warmer/more hot
days/nights over most
land areas.
Adverse effects on quality
of surface and
groundwater;
contamination of water
supply
Disruption of settlements,
Deaths, injuries,
commerce, transport and
infectious diseases,
societies due to flooding;
allergies and dermatitis
pressures on urban and
from floods and landslides
rural infrastructures
Projected Change
Heavy precipitation
events: frequency
inc eases over
increases
o e most
areas
Area affected by
y
drought: increases
Number of intense
tropical
t
i l cyclones:
l
increases
Projected Impacts by Sector
Damage to crops; soil
erosion, inability to
lti t lland,
d water
t
cultivate
logging of soils
Adverse effects on
quality of surface and
groundwater;;
g
contamination of water
supply
Land degradation, lower
yields/crop
water
y
/
p damage
g and More widespread
p
failure; livestock deaths; stress
land degradation
g to crops;
p ;
Damage
windthrow of trees
Power outages cause
disruption
off public
di
ti
bli
water supply
Incidence of extreme
Decreased freshwater
Salinization of irrigation
high
availability
g sea level:
y due to
d well
ll water
t
and
increases
saltwater intrusion
Deaths, injuries,
infectious diseases,
allergies
g
and dermatitis
from floods and
landslides
Disruption of
settlements, commerce,
transport and societies
d
due
tto flooding;
fl di
pressures on urban and
rural infrastructures
Water shortages for
Increased risk of food
settlements, industry
and water shortage and
and societies;; reduced
ild fi
d risk
i k
fires; iincreased
wild
hydropower generation
of water- and food-borne
potentials; potentials for
diseases
population migration
Disruption by flood and
Increased risk of deaths, high winds; withdrawal
injuries,
waterand
off risk
i j i
t
d
i k coverage in
i
food-borne diseases
vulnerable areas by
private insurers
Costs of coastal
Increase in deaths by
protection versus costs
drowning in floods;
of land-use relocation;;
i
iin stress-related
t
l t d
increase
also see tropical
disease
cyclones above
Abrupt Climate Change
•
•
•
•
•
changes in the Earth
changes
in the Earth’ss orbit
orbit
a brightening or dimming of the sun
melting or surging ice sheets
li
i i
h
strengthening or weakening of ocean currents
emissions of climate‐altering gases and p
particles into the atmosphere
p
Adapted from Alexander et al. (2006).
Alexander et al. (2006).
IPCC
Escenarios Globales AR4 Desastres mas frecuentes
Escala global durante
1991-2005
Mayores desastres en México
durante 1980-2003
( ill
(millones
d
de dls.)
dl )
(EM-DAT, 2006)
Origen hidrometeorológico
(Zuñiga-Bello, 2007)
REDESClim, 2011
Origen Hidrometeorológico y Climático
(Stahle ett al. 2009)
Junio 2010: Paso del Huracán Alex por Monterrey
Inundaciones y heladas
2010
Todo México: Sequías e incendios
REDESClim, 2011
México (temperatura anual)
México (precipitación anual)
DF (temperatura mayo)
DF (temperatura
DF (precipitación anual)
DF (precipitación
GRACIAS GRACIAS
cgay@unam.mx