Download Social and ecological resilience: are they related?

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2000
ADGER, NEIL W.
2000 ―Social and ecological resilience: are they related?‖ in
Progress in Human Geography, SAGE Publications 24, 3, pp. 347-364
Doi: 10.1191/030913200701540465
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Amenazas ambientales
caso:
Resiliencia de las comunidades y del medio natural
Población en general
Resumen:
This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities
to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political
and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in
relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of
ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear
link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or
communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources
for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable
resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether
resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic
situation of social groups and explores potential links between social
resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study
in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed,
and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resource-dependent
community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its
institutions is outlined.
1999
ADGER, NEIL W., P.M. KELLY
1999
―Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of
Entitlements‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, pp. 253-266
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Respuesta social-Economía
Población en general
2
Resumen:
The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to
climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and
economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability
as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of
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individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to
cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and
well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being
of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of
approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the
adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently
address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of
any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the
entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This
perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neoclassical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework,
vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by
institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of
vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the
entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a
District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such
an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at
the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes
that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and
global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a
specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not
appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals
with the vulnerability of the global community itself.
2006
ALLEN, KATRINA M.
2006
―Community -based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation:
local capacity building in the Philippines‖, in
Disasters, Overseas
Development Institute.
30(1): 81-101 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00308.x
Continente EUROPEO REINO-UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Cambio Climático
caso:
Capital social
Población en general
2006 ASIATICO
Filipinas
3
Resumen:
Community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) approaches are increasingly
important elements of vulnerability reduction and disaster management
strategies. They are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge
and capacities of local people and builds on local resources, including social
capital. CBDP may be instrumental not only in formulating local coping and
adaptation strategies, but also in situating them within wither development
planning and debates. In theory, local people can be mobilised to resist
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unsustainable (vulnerability increasing) forms of development or livelihood
practices and to raise local concerns more effectively with political
representatives. This paper focuses on the potential of CBDP initiatives to
alleviate vulnerability in the context of climate change, and their limitations.
It presents evidence from the Philippines that, in the limited forms in which
they are currently employed, CBDP initiatives have the potential both to
empower and disempower, and warns against treating CBDP as a panacea to
disaster management problems.
2005
ANDERSON-BERRY, LINDA, DAVID KING
2005 ―Mitigation of the Impact of Tropical Cyclones in Northern Australia
through Community Capacity Enhancement‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol 10, no. 3, July, pp. 367-392
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Ciclones tropicales
caso:
Respuesta social-Tecnológica
Población en general
OCEÁNICO
Australia
Resumen: Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and
preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and complex
communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of
Australia has gathered extensive datasets on community awareness,
preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns
and mitigation strategies. Data have been used to identify issues of
vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been
developed as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be
applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability to
mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a
simplified form as its development is evolving and ongoing.
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2003
ASHMORE, JOSEPH, ELIZABETH BABISTER, TOM CORSELLIS, JON
FOWLER, ILAN KELMAN, ALLAN MCROBIE, PETER MANFIELD,
ROBIN SPENCE, ANTONELLA VITALE
2003
―Diversity and Adaptation of Shelters in Transitional Settlements for
IDPs in Afghanistan‖, in Disasters, Overseas Development Institute 27 (4),
pp. 273-287
DOI: 10.1111/j.0361-3666.2003.00233.x
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Frío
caso:
5
3
Diseño de refugios para personas desplazadas
Personas desplazadas
2002 ASIÁTICO
Afganistán Herat
Resumen:
The diversity of shelters in transitional settlements for internally displaced
persons (IDPs) in Herat, Afghanistan is described. The information is based
on a field survey undertaken in March 2002 and highlights the adaptation
techniques, which IDPs undertake to improve any provided shelter. Potential
areas for improvement are indicated; for example, the possibility for using
insulated, demountable liners to prevent cold-related deaths without
sacrificing shelter flexibility along with the likely need for better agency
coordination of the shelter responses they provide. The wider context in
which the technical recommendations would be implemented must also be
considered. Such issues include agency resources, political impediments to
providing the desired option, and the preference fo many IDPs that the best
shelter would be their home.
2010
AUDEFROY, JOEL
2010
―Post-disaster emergency and reconstruction experiences in Asia
and Latin America: an assesment‖, in Development in Practice, Routledge
Taylor & Francis Group, vol. 20, no. 6, August
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Procesos adaptativos postdesastre
Población albergada
AMERICANO Y ASIÁTICO
Varios ejemplos en Asia y Latinoamérica
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Resumen:
From United Nations emergency-response strategies involving establishment
of tent camps, to the reconstruction approach of FUNDASAL in El Salvador
and housing responses of CARITAS in Asia, iti si clear that a giant step has
been taken in thinking around emergency shelter as well as prevention and
reconstruction proposals. This presentation will evaluate some update good
practices in Asia and Latin America in the field of post-disaster emergency
shelter using local skills, materials and tools, and a lot of participative
processes
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2006
AUDEFROY, JOEL
2006
―Evaluación de algunas experiencias de prevención y mitigación de
desastres en América Latina‖, in Revista POS-FAU, Universidad de Sao
Paulo, no 19, junio, pp. 158-174
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Continente AMERICANO-BRASIL
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Programas de prevención y mitigación
Población en general
AMERICANO
Varios países
Resumen:
Los desastres de origen "natural" han provocado miles de muertos y heridos y
daños materiales por miles de millones de dólares en los últimos veinte años.
Estos desastres han sido originados no tanto por los fenómenos naturales
extraordinarios sino más bien por la falta de planes y programas de
prevención y mitigación de desastres. En este trabajo se analizan algunas
experiencias exitosas en materia de prevención y mitigación de desastres en
algunos países de América Latina.
2009
AUDEFROY, JOEL
2009
―Vivienda y ayuda humanitaria: los antecedentes de las acciones
frente a los desastres‖, in Revista TRACE, Centro de Estudios Mexicanos y
Centroamericanos, no 56, diciembre, pp. 76-87
Continente AMERICANO-MÉXICO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Vivienda humanitaria y reconstrucción
Población en general
ASIÁTICO
Pakistán, Indonesia, Sri Lanka
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Resumen:
La ayuda humanitaria llevada a cabo después de los desastres no es un
fenómeno reciente. Si bien las acciones de las grandes agencias humanitarias
internacionales son conocidas, tales como las de la Cruz Roja Internacional,
OXFAM, y CARITAS Internacional entre otras, lo que es menos conocido,
son las propuestas de arquitectos para agencias tales como Architecture et
Developpement, Architectes sans Frontieres y Architectes de l'Urgence
(Francia) sobre el hábitat de emergencia y la reconstrucción. De hecho, si
revisamos el tema en un corte histórico, observamos que las propuestas han
sido bastante ligadas a corrientes y movimientos de la arquitectura sobre todo
a partir del siglo XX. Este trabajo presenta los antecedentes de la
participación de los arquitectos en el diseño de propuestas para emergencia y
reconstrucción después de desastres y presenta algunas experiencias recientes
a raíz del sismo de Pakistán, y del tsunami en Indonesia y Sri Lanka.
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2003
5
AUDEFROY, JOEL
2003
―La problemática de los desastres en el hábitat urbano en América
Latina‖, in Boletín del Instituto de la Vivienda, Facultad de Arquitectura y
Urbanismo, Universidad de Chile, mayo, vol. 18, No. 47, Santiago de Chile
INVI
Continente AMERICANO-CHILE
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Participación de autoridades, organizaciones y academia
Población urbana
AMERICANO
México Distrito Federal Delegación Alvaro Obregón
Resumen:
En este breve trabajo presentaremos los principales riesgos urbanos en
América Latina, los procesos que llevan a una degradación y riesgos. Luego
examinaremos las alternativas propuestas por los principales actoresw
involucrados: autoridades locales, organizaciones sociales, organizaciones no
gubernamentales y universidades. Terminaremos con el ejemplo de la Ciudad
de México en donde llevamos a cabo un estudio que nos permitió conocer la
percepción de las autoridades locales frente a los riesgos y de los habitantes
en la Delegación Alvaro Obregón.
1997
AYRES, R.U.
1997
―Environmental Market Failures: Are There Any Local MarketBased Corrective Mechanisms for Global Problems?‖, in Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 1, number 3, pp.
289-309
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Economía local-global
Resumen: The paper reviews various policy tools that have been discussed in the
literature, including legal, administrative and fiscal (tax) schemes, as well as
tradeable emission permits, and concludes that none of them are really
suitable for dealing with global problems. An alternative is suggested,
namely the use of tradeable individual consumption quotas for traded
commodities at the national level, to be extended later to the global level by
trading quotas among nations (assuming agreement can be reached on the
basis for determining quotas).
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1999
BASHER, R.E.
1999
―Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate
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Variability and Change‖, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, , pp. 227-231
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Gobiernos
Resumen:
An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate
and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate
is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to
develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these
practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate
and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to
reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk
management and climate prediction services, though their roles as
adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are
good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the
databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific
quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness.
Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its
information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data
gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from
cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes
in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly
identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a
renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the
necessary data.
2010
BAUM, SETH D., WILLIAM E. EASTERLING
2010 ―Space-time discounting in climate change adaptation‖, in Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol 15, no. 6,
august, pp. 591-609
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Población en general
12
Resumen:
Discounting is traditionally interpreted as the technique for comparing the
values of costs and benefits which occur at different points in time. It
endeavors to incorporate how humans trade off values to be received in the
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future versus value received immediately into economic analysis. Interpreted
as such, discounting neglects important spatial influences on how values are
compared, thereby hindering cost-benefit analyses of climate change
adaptation. In this article, we present new theory on space-time discounting
and use it to analyze aspects of how humans adapt to climate change. Three
climate change adaptation cases are considered. First, analysis of crop
indemnity payments to farmers shows that failure to discount across space
and time yields inaccurate evaluations of adaptation projects. Second,
adaptation efforts of the Commonwealth of Nations show irregular patterns
of international cooperation that suggest spatial discounting of adaptation
which are not found in temporal discounting. Third, the nexus between
climate change, migration, and conflict shows how various forms of spacetime discounting can influence whether climate change and migration will
lead to conflict. Collectively, these cases demonstrate the analytical power of
the space-time discounting theory and also show how the complexity of
climate change adaptation can challenge and strengthen this theory. Finally,
this article‘s analysis demonstrates that proper discounting must include
space as well as time.
2008
BOSHER, LEE (ED.); JOHN MORTON, GUILLAUME CHANTRY
2008
―More to lose: the case for prevention, loans for strengthening, and
"safe housing" Insurance - the case of central Vietnam‖, in Hazards and the
built environment. Taylor & Francis Group.
ISBN: 978-0-415-42730-2
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Protección de la infraestructura
Población urbana
ASIÁTICO
Vietnam
13
Resumen:
As a specialist in disaster preparation, you have huge responsibilities. A
failure to prepare for natural and human-induced disasters costs lives and
money. When a natural or human-induced disaster hits a built-up area the
amount of damage it does will depend largely on the extent to which the built
assets in the area were developed to withstand it. To fail in this respect is
therefore both ethically and financially negligent. What kinds of structural
and non-structural alterations can be made to protect buildings from largescale disasters? How can we reduce the threat of these disasters, as well as
the damage they cause? Presenting seven guiding principles, drawn from a
broad range of disciplines and approaches, this book tackles the difficult
questions about what can be done to attain built-in resilience. With
contributions from many renowned experts and upcoming researchers in the
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fields concerned, it comprehensively assesses the wide range of issues faced
by practitioners. Whether you're studying construction management,
researching hazard resilience issues or working on construction projects in
hazardous regions, this book is for you.
2008
BOSHER, LEE (ED.); ROHIT JIGYASU
2008 ―Structural adaptation in South Asia. Learning lesson from tradition‖,
in Hazards and the built environment. Taylor & Francis Group.
ISBN: 978-0-415-42730-2
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Protección de la infraestructura
Población urbana
ASIÁTICO
Sudeste asiático
14
Resumen:
As a specialist in disaster preparation, you have huge responsibilities. A
failure to prepare for natural and human-induced disasters costs lives and
money. When a natural or human-induced disaster hits a built-up area the
amount of damage it does will depend largely on the extent to which the built
assets in the area where developed to withsand it. To fail in this respect is
therefore both ethically and financially negligent. What kinds of structural
and non-structural alterations can be made to protect buildings from longscale disasters? How can we reduce the threat of these disasters, as well as
the damage they cause? Presenting seven guiding principles, drawn from a
broad range of disciplines and approaches, this book tackles the difficult
questions about what can be done to attain built-in resilience. With
contributions from many renowned experts and upcoming researchers in the
fields concerned, it comprehensively assesses the wide range of issues faced
by practitioners. Whether you're studying construction management,
researching hazard resilience issues or working on construction projects in
hazardous regiones, this book is for you.
2007
BOSHER, LEE, PATRICIA CARRILLO, ANDREW DAINTY,
JACQUELINE GLASS, ANDREW PRICE
2007
―Realising a resilient and sustainable built environment: towards a
strategic agenda for the United Kingdom‖, in Disasters, Overseas
Development Institute, 31(3): 236-255
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2007.01007.x
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
15
9
Estudio de
caso:
Emergencias naturales y antrópicas
Mitigación de riesgos mediante cambios en la construcción de infraestructura
Población en general
EUROPEO
Reino Unido
Resumen:
Recent natural and human-inducted emergencies have highlighted the
vulnerability of the built environment. Although most emergency events are
not entirely unexpected, and the effects can be mitigated, emergency
managers in the United Kingdom have not played a sufficiently proactive role
in the mitigation of such events. If a resilient and sustainable built
environment is to be achieved, emergency management should be more
proactive and receive greater input frome the stakeholders responsible for the
planning, design, construction and operation of the built environment. This
paper highlights the need for emergency management to take a more
systematic approach to hazard mitigation by integrating more with
professions from the construction sector. In particular, design changes my
have to be considered, critical infrastructures must be protected, planning
policies should be reviewed, and resilient and sustainable agendas adopted by
all stakeholders.
2006
BOUWER, LAURENS M., C.J.H. JEROEN
2006 ―Financing climate change adaptation‖, in Disasters, Overseas
Development Institute, 30(1): 49-63
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Cambio Climático
caso:
Financiamiento de políticas públicas de manejo de riesgos
Población en general
16
Resumen:
This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate
change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing
countries shoudl be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come
from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and
propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to
secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second
track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in
development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much
greater mommitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC
were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate
change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in
relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects
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taht currently do not consider climate and weather risk could improve their
sustainability.
2005
BRANCO, ADÉLIA, JOÂO SUASSUNA, SEMIRA VAINSENCHER
2005 "Improving Acces to Water Resources through Rainwater Harvesting
as a Mitigation Measure: The Case of the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region‖, in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol 10,
no. 3, July, pp. 393-409
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A
ED
Estudio de Escasez de agua
caso:
Respuesta social
ONGs
AMERICANO
Brasil
17
Resumen:
This paper focuses on the importance of rainwater harvesting to mitigate the
scarcity of water in the semi-arid region of Brazil. It is a case study about the
Million Cisterns Project, an initiative developed by NGOs with the support of
Brazilian Federal Government Institutions and international funding
organizations. The project is innovative in a series of ways when compared to
mitigation measures previously implemented by the government. Instead of
focussing on short-term, top-down, palliative measures based on the
construction of dams and wells, it focuses on low cost, bottom-up, long-term
measures and, most importantly, it involves an educational component. Thus,
the provision of water is closely related to the empowerment of the most
destitute population and this leads to the sustainability of the actions. The
case study serves to illustrate the relevance of the partnership between
grassroots organizations and governmental institutions in the context of
mitigation.
1999
BRUCE, J.P.
1999 "Disaster Loss Mitigation as an Adaptation to Climate Variability and
Change‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, , pp. 295-306
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Amenazas relacionadas con el cambio climático; El Niño.
caso:
Planeación territorial
Población en general
18
Resumen:
Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require
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vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one that is
rapidly changing. These adaptation measures, to reduce loss of life, human
suffering and economic losses come under the heading "disaster loss
mitigation". Since 1990 the United Nations'' International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction has provided for international cooperation and
information dissemination. Nevertheless, world-wide economic disaster
losses in the 1990s have continued to show a rapid increase - and the increase
for climate related disasters has been three to four times greater than those for
geological disasters.
Is some of this increased loss due to anthropogenic climate change? There is
some evidence of increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls in a number of
regions and of severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere. On the other
hand, there is little global trend in frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones
whose geographical distribution is more closely related to ENSO events. But
is there a possibility that increases in intensity over the past few decades of El
Niño and La Niña events are related to increased radiative forcing from
greenhouse gases?
Whatever the outcome of emerging research on extreme events in a changing
climate, it is evident that climate adaptation through disaster mitigation
measures is of increasing importance with growing populations in more
vulnerable regions. Measures that must be supported vigorously include
improved warning and preparedness systems, safer buildings, risk-averse
land use planning, better protected urban infrastructure, and more resilient
water supply systems, among others. Both national and international efforts
must not be allowed to diminish after the end of the IDNDR in 1999. The
task is only begun.
2007
BUDREAU, DAVIN, GORDON MCBEAN
2007
"Climate change, adaptive capacity and policy direction in the
Canadian North: can we learn anything from the collapse of the east coast
cod fishery?‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer , vol 12, no. 7, august, pp. 1305-1320
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Recursos pesqueros
Población local
AMERICANO
Canadá
19
Resumen:
Scientific evidence gathered over the past five years suggests that northern
Canada and the Arctic have undergone, and are undergoing, formidable
environmental changes linked to global climate change. Environmental
change in the north is expected to persist and intensify over the course of the
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next century. When large-scale environmental changes take place, they
inevitably affect people, especially when the cultures and livelihoods of those
people depend on their relationship with the environment. Managing the local
impacts of these changes is a matter of adaptation. This paper discusses some
of the policy implications of adaptation––government interventions aiming to
build communities‘ and regions‘ capacities to adapt to environmental
changes. Three arguments for adaptive capacity building interventions in the
north are discussed, and these arguments are augmented by a comparative
review of government reactions to the collapse of the cod fishery in Atlantic
Canada. Reactive and proactive policy approaches are discussed, and it is
suggested from the comparison that proactive approaches to intervention are
desirable for building adaptive capacity.
2010
BYJESH, KATTARKANDI, SOORA KUMAR, PRAMOD AGGARWAL
S/D
―Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize
to climate change in India‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Climate Change, Springer, vol 15, no. 5, pp. 413-431
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Seguridad alimentaria
Población en general
ASIÁTICO
India
20
Resumen:
Climate change associated global warming, rise in carbon dioxide
concentration and uncertainties in precipitation has profound implications on
Indian agriculture. Maize (Zea mays L.), the third most important cereal crop
in India, has a major role to play in country‘s food security. Thus, it is
important to analyze the consequence of climate change on maize
productivity in major maize producing regions in India and elucidate
potential adaptive strategy to minimize the adverse effects. Calibrated and
validated InfoCrop-MAIZE model was used for analyzing the impacts of
increase in temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2) and change in rainfall apart
from HadCM3 A2a scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The main insights
from the analysis are threefold. First, maize yields in monsoon are projected
to be adversely affected due to rise in atmospheric temperature; but increased
rainfall can partly offset those loses. During winter, maize grain yield is
projected to reduced with increase in temperature in two of the regions (Mid
Indo-Gangetic Plains or MIGP, and Southern Plateau or SP), but in the Upper
Indo-Gangetic Plain (UIGP), where relatively low temperatures prevail
during winter, yield increased up to a 2.7°C rise in temperature. Variation in
rainfall may not have a major impact on winter yields, as the crop is already
well irrigated. Secondly, the spatio-temporal variations in projected changes
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in temperature and rainfall are likely to lead to differential impacts in the
different regions. In particular, monsoon yield is reduced most in SP (up to
35%), winter yield is reduced most in MIGP (up to 55%), while UIGP yields
are relatively unaffected. Third, developing new cultivars with growth pattern
in changed climate scenarios similar to that of current varieties in present
conditions could be an advantageous adaptation strategy for minimizing the
vulnerability of maize production in India.
2008
CAMPBELL, DONOVAN
S/D "Small farming in an era of global change and uncertainty‖, in
Jamaican Geographer, Jamaican Geographical Society, no. 18, pp. 4
Continente AMERICANO-Jamaica
ED
Estudio de Crisis agrícola y alimentaria
caso:
Seguridad alimentaria
Población en general
0 AMERICANO
Jamaica
21
Resumen:
Food security and domestic food protuction in Jamaica has been of concern
for many years but the rapid escalation of oil and food prices in the global
economy has brought these concerns sharply into focus in 2008. The global
food crisis of 2007-2008 has witnessed an overall 40% increase in food
prices, numerous food riots and more countries restricting food export as a
way to safeguard their supplies; leaving import-dependent countries in a
panic. Locally, the absolute incapacitation of state efforts toward small
agriculture since the 1970s has resulted in a decline in domestic food
production and an increased dependence on food imports. The availability of
food has become more insecure — less land is under cultivation and more
and more food is being imported for local consumption.
2009
CAMPBELL, DONOVAN AND CLINTON BECKFORD
S/D
"Negotiating Uncertainty: Jamaican Small Farmers‘ Adaptation and
Coping Strategies, Before and After Hurricanes—A Case Study of Hurricane
Dean", in
Sustainability, 1366-1387; Journal Sustainability.
(www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability) doi:10.3390/su1041366
Continente EUROPEO-SUIZA
ED
Estudio de Huracán
caso:
Protección del patrimonio
Granjeros en pequeña escala
2007 AMERICANO
22
14
Jamaica St. Elizabeth Potsdam, Top Hill, Southfield, and Flagaman
Resumen:
In recent years, Jamaica has been seriously affected by a number of extreme
meteorological events. The one discussed here, Hurricane Dean, passed along
the south coast of the island in August 2007, damaging crops and disrupting
livelihood activities for many small-scale farmers. This study is based on
detailed ethnographic research in the southern coastal region of St. Elizabeth
parish during the passage of Hurricane Dean, and explores the ways in which
small farmers negotiate the stressors associated with hurricane events. The
study employed a mix methods approach based on a survey of 282 farming
households. The paper documents coping strategies employed by farmers in
the immediate period of Hurricane Dean to reduce damage to their farming
systems, and highlights the positive correlation between farmers‘ perceptions
of hurricanes and degree of damage to local farming systems. In addition,
through an analysis of socio-economic and environmental data, the paper
provides an understanding of the determinants of adaptive capacity and
strategy among farmers in the area. The study indicated that despite high
levels of vulnerability, farmers have achieved successful coping and
adaptation at the farm level.
2011
CAMPBELL, DONOVAN, DAVID BARKER, DUNCAN MCGREGOR
2011 ―Dealing with drought: Small farmers and environmental hazards in
southern St. Elizabeth, Jamaica‖, Applied Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31,
issue 1, January. doi: 10.1016/j.appgeog.2010.03.007
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Sequía
caso:
Producción agrícola
Agricultores
AMERICANO
Jamaica St. Elizabeth
23
Resumen:
This paper reports on ongoing research on the impact of global environmental
and economic change on small farming in Jamaica using a case study of
southern St. Elizabeth. The area is one of the principal small farming regions
in the country and supplies both the domestic market and the Jamaican tourist
industry. Farmers in this rain shadow region are susceptible to multiple
hazards, and have been particulary badly affected by hurricanes, droughts and
bush fires in recent years. This paper focuses on farmers' responses to and
perceptions of drought hazards, and explores contrasts between drought
hazard impacts and hurricane hazard impacts in three communities in the
study area. Farmers' coping strategies are examined.
24
2002
15
CHATTERJEE, KALIPADA, SALEEMUL HUQ
2002 ―A Report on the Inter-regional Conference on Adaptation to Climate
Change‖, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer,
vol 7, no. 4, pp. 403-406
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Grupos de investigación
2002 ASIÁTICO
India Nueva Delhi
Resumen:
The IPCC Third Assessment highlighted theneed for adaptation to climate
change.Keeping in view the importance ofadaptation to climate change,
particularlyin developing countries, DevelopmentAlternatives organised an
Inter-regionalConference on Adaptation to Climate Change,during October
18-20, 2002, just before CoP8 at New Delhi. About 120 participants
frommore than 20 countries, both developed anddeveloping, participated in
the conference.The conference discussed vulnerability ofnatural and human
systems and communitypractices to adapt to climate change. Theconference
deliberated on training andcapacity building of communities forincreasing
their resilience to adapt toadverse impacts of climate change. Theparticipants
also came out with a set ofrecommendations for wider dissemination
tovarious stakeholders during the COP 8 beingheld at New Delhi (from 23
October to 1November). The recommendations from theconference were
used in the COP 8negotiations as well as the DelhiMinisterial Declaration.
The ConferenceReport will provide a guideline for thedeveloping countries
for initiating work onadaptation.
1998
CLARK, G.E., S.C. MOSER, S.J. RATICK, K. DOW, W.B. MEYER, S.
EMANI, W. JIN, J.X. KASPERSON, R.E. KASPERSON, H.E. SCHWARZ
1998
―Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme
Storms: The Case of Revere, MA, USA‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 3, numer 1, pp. 59-82
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Tormentas severas
caso:
Análisis cartográfico, censal y espacial
Población en general
AMERICANO
Estados Unidos Massachussets Revere
25
Resumen:
Climate change may affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic
16
distribution of severe coastal storms. Concurrent sea-level rise would raise
the baseline of flooding during such events. Meanwhile, social vulnerability
factors such as poverty and disability hinder the ability to cope with storms
and storm damage. While physical changes are likely to remain scientifically
uncertain into the foreseeable future, the ability to mitigate potential impacts
from coastal flooding may be fostered by better understanding the interplay
of social and physical factors that produce human vulnerability. This study
does so by integrating the classic causal model of hazards with social,
environmental, and spatial dynamics that lead to the differential ability of
people to cope with hazards. It uses Census data, factor analysis, data
envelopment analysis, and floodplain maps to understand the compound
social and physical vulnerability of coastal residents in the city of Revere,
MA, USA.
2002
DISON, R.K.
2002
―Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Editorial
Policy Update 2003‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, Springer, vol 7, no. 4, pp. 321-322
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de
caso:
26
Resumen:
SIN RESUMEN
1998
DIXON, R.K.
S/D
―Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change‖, in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 3,
numbers 2-4, pp. 459-464
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Estrategias adaptativas
Población en general
27
Resumen:
SIN RESUMEN
2003
DIXON, R.K.
2003
―Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Editorial
Policy Update‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, Vol 8, no. 1, pp. 1-2
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
28
17
ED
Estudio de
caso:
Cambio climático
Resumen:
SIN RESUMEN
1997
DOWNING, T.E., L. RINGIUS, M. HULME, D. WAUGHRAY
1997 ―Adapting to Climate Change in Africa‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 2, number 1, pp. 19-44
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura-recursos hídricos
Población en general
AFRICANO
29
Resumen:
The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change
in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale,
adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a
systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of
stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of
impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of
adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The
most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to
enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental,
resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water
systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
30
2006
EBI, KRISTIE, JOEL SMITH, IAN BURTON, JOEL SCHERAGA
2006
―Some Lessons Learned from Public Health on the Process of
Adaptation‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change,
Springer, vol 11, no. 3, May, pp. 607-620
AMERICANO E.U.A.
Cotinente
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Salud
Sistemas de salud pública
Resumen:
Lessons learned from more than 150 years of public health research and
intervention can provide insights to guide public health professionals and
institutions as they design and implement specific strategies, policies, and
measures to increase resilience to climate variability and change. This paper
18
identifies both some modifications to public health systems that may enhance
adaptive capacity, and lessons drawn from the history of managing
environmental and other threats in the public health sector that may have
relevance for other sectors as they design approaches to increase their
adaptive capacity to more effectively cope with climate variability and
change.
1997
EL SHAER, H. M., C. ROSENZWEIG, A. IGLESIAS, M.H. EID, D.
HILLEL.
1997
―Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian
Agriculture in the Future‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, Springer, vol 1 number 3, pp. 233-250
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura-Economía
Agricultores
AFRICANO
Egipto
31
Resumen:
If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible
climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to
be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the
Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base,
and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and
erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use
efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions
with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of
increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques
which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate
for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use
efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall
water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and
conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If
appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in
agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land)
may be lessened.
1999
EL-RAEY, M., K. DEWIDAR, M. EL-HATTAB
1999
―Adaptation to the Impacts for Sea Level Rise in Egypt‖, in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 4,
number 3-4, pp. 343-361
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
32
19
ED
Estudio de
caso:
Inundación
Economía, Infraestructura
Población en general
AFRICANO
Egipto Alejandría
Resumen:
Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the
Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details.
Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said
in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at
Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about
30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will
have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic
loss of over 3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said
Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected
(hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least
affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over3.5 Billion is
expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that
beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban
areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that
the economic loss is over 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4
Billion for 1.25 m SLR.
Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria
and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried
out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of
two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable
areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach
nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the
highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most costeffective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high
cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it
provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.
2007
ERIKSEN, S., P. KELLY
2007 ―Developing Credible Vulnerability Indicators for Climate Adaptation
Policy Assessment‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate
Change, Springer, vol 12, no. 4, may, pp. 495-524
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Líderes políticos
33
20
Resumen:
We address the issue of how to develop credible indicators of vulnerability to
climate change that can be used to guide the development of adaptation
policies. We compare the indicators and measures that five past national-level
studies have used and examine how and why their approaches have differed.
Other relevant indicator studies of social facets of society as well as
vulnerability studies at sub-national level are also examined for lessons
regarding best practice. We find that the five studies generally emphasise
descriptive measures by aggregating environmental and social conditions.
However, they vary greatly both in the types of indicators and measures used
and differ substantially in their identification of the most vulnerable
countries. Further analysis of scientific approaches underlying indicator
selection suggests that the policy relevance of national-level indicators can be
enhanced by capturing the processes that shape vulnerability rather than
trying to aggregate the state itself. Such a focus can guide the selection of
indicators that are representative even when vulnerability varies over time or
space. We find that conceptualisation regarding how specific factors and
processes influencing vulnerability interact is neither given sufficient
consideration nor are assumptions transparently defined in previous studies.
Verification has been neglected, yet this process is important both to assess
the credibility of any set of measures and to improve our understanding of
vulnerability. A fundamental lesson that emerges is the need to enhance our
understanding of the causes of vulnerability in order to develop indicators
that can effectively aid policy development.
2005
ETKIN, DAVID, INGRID STEFANOVIC
2005 ―Mitigating Natural Disasters: The Rol of Eco-Ethics‖, in Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol 10, no. 3, July
pp. 467-490
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Ecología-Bioética
Población en general
34
Resumen:
Natural disasters are complex phenomena, the causes of which lie to a large
extent in human behavior that creates vulnerable communities. In order to
reduce vulnerability and thereby mitigate the risk of disasters, it is important
to consider underlying values, particularly with respect to how people view
and interact with the natural world. Advancing an interdisciplinary,
ecological paradigm, this paper argues that disaster mitigation needs to be
addressed through a process that results in a greater emphasis on our
interactions with and reliance upon the natural world, and the development of
community resilience.
21
2000
FAIZ RASHID, SABINA
2000
―The Urban Poor in Dhaka City: Their Struggles and Coping
Strategies during the Floods of 1998‖, in Disasters, Overseas Development
Institute, 24(3): 240-253
DOI: 10.1111/1467-7717.00145
Continente EUROPEO REINO-UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Economía-Infraestructura habitacional-Salud
Población urbana
1998 ASIÁTICO
Bangladesh Dhaka
35
Resumen:
Bangladesh experienced one of the worst floods in recorded history in 1998.
This paper focuses on the needs and coping strategies of the urban poor in
Dhaka City, which had been very badly affected. The city's roads were
completely under water, and most areas were water-logged with drainage and
sewage systems blocked. Rising water levels compelled many slum dwellers
to move to temporary shelters and relief camps. Women and children were
the most affected. The lack of sanitation facilities and privacy forced women
and children to defecate in their own homes. There was an acute scarcity of
safe drinking-water, and food prices rose dramatically. Diarrhea, fever and
colds were the most common illnesses affecting the poor. The floods left
many of them unemployed, and in some families, the result was increased
tension and incidents of domestic violence. In some areas, members felt
pressured to repay micro-credit loans. Most NGOs, however, suspended loan
repayments. During this period, a commitee was set up to co-ordinate and
work towards addressing some of the main post-flood problems.
2011
FRAZIER, TIM, GARRET BROAD, DONOVAN CAMPBELL, PETER
HOWE, FELIPE MURTINHO, HUMBERTO REYES HERNANDEZ
S/D
―Visualization of Slow-Developing Hazards: Influencing
Perceptions and Behaviors to Facilitate Adaptation Planning‖, in 91st
American Metheorological Society Annual Meeting
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura-Infraestructura
población rural
AMERICANO
Varios países
36
22
Resumen:
Many of major global environmental problems are chronic rather than acute.
Climate change, food insecurity, and water scarcity are priem examples.
While science is advancing rapidly at being able to describe, model, and
predict these phenomena, the communication of scientific findings to people
'on the ground' can be limited by the availability of tools to depict the full
depth and breadth of available data. At the same time, people facing hazards
can be limited in their ability to communicate their depth of knowledge to
researchers and policymakers by differences in organizational knowledge and
access to technology, among other concerns. In this white paper, we discuss
both the importance and difficulty of visualizing slow-developing hazards as
a way to influence the perceptions of people in vulnerable communities and
motivate action to mitigate and adapt to the hazards. We define visualization
broadly, to encompass multiple modes and audiences in place-specific
situations. We outline some of the key concerns when developing
intervention strategies, with a focus on the role of media in addition to
community-based social, occupational and organizational networks. We
present several brief case studies from rural Jamaica, Colombia, Mexico and
Southern California as a way to explicate the opportunities and constraints for
visualization efforts in diverse settings across the Americas.
2009
GAMBLE, DOUGLAS W., DONOVAN CAMPBELL, THEODORE
ALLEN, DAVID BARKER, SCOTT CURTIS, DUNCAN MCGREGOR,
JEFF POPKE
2010
―Climate change, drought, and Jamaican agriculture: Local
knowledge and the climate record‖, in Annals of the Association of American
Geographers, Routledge Taylor & Francis Group, vol. 100, issue 4.
Continente AMERICANO – E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático-sequías
caso:
Agricultura
Población rural
AMERICANO
Jamaica St. Elizabeth
37
Resumen:
The purpose of this study is to reach a basic understanding of drought and
climate change in southwestern Jamaica through an integration of local
knowledge and perception of drought and its physical characteristics
manifested in remotely sensed precipitation and vegetation data. Local
knowledge and perception are investigated through a survey of sixty farmers
in St Elizabeth Parish and physical characteristics of drought are examined
through statistical analysis of satellite precipitation and vegetation vigor time
series. The survey indicates that most farmers are concerned about an
increase in drought occurrence. Satellite estimates of rainfall and vegetation
vigor for St Elizabeth Parish support this perception; suggesting that severe
23
drought events are becomming more frequent. The satellite precipitation time
series also suggest the primary growing season is becvoming wetter and
compared to the early growin season since 1993. This recent divergence in
growing season moisture conditions may add to farmers' observations that
drought is becoming more prevalent. Consequently, Jamaican farmer
perception of drought is not driven my magnitude and frequency of dry
months alone, rather by the difference between growing seasons. Any
development of drought adaptation and mitigation plans for this area must not
solely focus on drought; it must also compare moisture conditions between
months and seasons in order to be effective.
2007
GIL, J., P. STEINBACH
S/D
―From flood risk to indirect flood impact: evaluation of street
network performance for effective management, response and repair‖, in
Space Syntax Limited Online
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de inundación
caso:
Mapas de riesgo por inundaciones en áreas urbanas
población urbana
EUROPEO
Reino Unido Londres
38
Resumen:
Current flood risk assessment and decision support tools, the UK Planning
Policy Statement 25 and the UK Environment Agency (EA) flood maps,
focus on the areas directly affected by flooding; however they do not adress
the indirect consequences of flooding on the existin street network. Research
has been don in transport network reliability and resilience to disasters but
little application exists to the floods scenario. In this paper we introduce a
methodology developed at Space Syntax Limited to analyse and visualize the
wider impact of flooding on the urban street network, measuring its
performance in order to respond to the situation more effectively. Starting
from a hypothetical scenario of floods in London affectin the areas within the
highest risk flood Zone 3 as defined by the EA, we use a spatial model of
London up to the M25 circular motorway and run network analysis
algorithms before and after the flooding. Using a GIS we quantify the extente
to which flooding affects the global structure of the city, the spatial
accessibility of town centres. The analysis also provides indicators of traffic
level distributions to evaluate the performance of the strategic transport
network revealing a dependency on the M25 in the flooded scenario for
longer trips across London, suggesting congestion levels beyond its capacity.
With this work we demonstrate that space syntax network analysis provides
objective indicators to demonstrate the indirect impacts of flooding on urban
street networks which can be used by relevant authorities to support a future
24
vision and their investment decisions concerning preventative strategies,
disaster management and repair.
2006
GLANTZ, M.H.
S/D
―Prototype Training Workshop for Educators on the Effects of
Climate Change on Seasonality and Environmental Hazards‖, in Reporte
(http://www.ccb.ucar.edu/apn/report) Asia-Pacific Network for Global
Change Research. 2004-CB07NSY-Glantz
ASIÁTICO-Thailandia
Estudio de Amenazas ambientales relacionadas con el cambio climático
caso:
Participación de instituciones gubernamentales y académicas
Población en general
2004 ASIÁTICO
Varios países
39
Resumen:
Most environmental hazards are seasonal and coping strategies have been
sought and in many cases developed to respond appropriately within the
limits of forecast uncertainties about the timing, magnitude, and location of
occurrence of specific hazards. As climate changes with global warming of
the Earth's atmosphere, societies will gradually, and in some cases
precipitously, be forced to respond and to cope with events and process that
will surpise them. These may include prolonged droughts in new locations,
shifts in tropical storm tracks in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, changes in
intensity of the various characteristics of severe storms such as winds and
rainfall, appearance of new infectious diseases in unsuspecting places, and so
on. Rather than focus on just the causes for such shifts in hazard behavior or
dwell only on the specific impacts on society, it is imperative to identify more
specifically the chain of events from cause to ultimate impacts on humans,
including responses to those impacts. We propose to highlight ―seasonality.‖
Early warnings of changes in seasonality, whether qualitatively or
quantitatively based, can elevate to prominence the key influence that subtle
changes in the characteristic flow of the seasons can have on the behavior of
living things on land and in the sea. Our initial seasonality focus is on
countries in a greater Southeast Asia. This region was chosen in part because
of the wide range of the kinds of climate-related hazards that the governments
and their citizens are affected by and, in part because the countries in
Southeast Asia consider themselves (and are, in fact, considered by others) to
be an integral part of the region for geographical as well as functional reasons
(political, cultural, and shared natural resources, such as rivers as well as
natural hazards). The notion of a ―Greater Southeast Asia‖ has been
introduced because regional politics, cultural, ethnic, and climate similarities
do not stop at political or administrative borders. Four countries were
originally chosen for the prototype workshop: Vietnam, the Philippines,
Malaysia, and Thailand. Each of these countries has been actively involved in
25
climate variability and climate change issues, and the organizers have had
interactions with various researchers within each of them. There has been
preliminary interest expressed by the University of Malaya (Kuala Lumpur)
in climate affairs as a program. Participants were also selected from Ho Chi
Minh City and Hanoi, Vietnam. Some universities in Bangkok also
participated in the workshop. It is hoped that the universities and training
centers that participated will continue the educational activities related to
seasonality and climate change and variability, including health issues. In
addition, participants from universities in India, China, and Sri Lanka actively
participated. Educational materials on the topics of seasonality, climate
variability, climate change, sustainable development, and the influence of
changes in the flow of the seasons on human activities have been identified
for use at the university undergraduate or graduate level. A second phase of
this activity will be to develop the concept for other universities and other
countries in the region. The participants were encouraged to interact
electronically and will assist in the development of course materials for use
by others in the region.
2005
GLANTZ, M.H.
S/D
―What makes good climates go bad?‖, in Geotimes, American
Geological Institute, 50(4), 18-24
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
40
Resumen:
While playing tennis one sunny afternoon, I began wondering the following:
What is it that makes good climates go bad? That random question passing
through my mind sparked another question: What does it mean to have a
―good‖ climate? So, I resorted to a Google search on the phrase ―good
climate.‖ In fact the search identified many Web sites with ―good climate‖ in
their text. However, the climate they were referring to almost totally was the
atmosphere for carrying out a good business arrangement — a ―good
climate‖ for studying, working and conducting wide range of activities. But
―climate‖ specifically is the appropriate environment that allows for the
carrying out of favored activities.
2005
GLANTZ, M.H.
S/D
―Water, climate and development issueds in the Amudarya Basin‖ in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies of Global Change, Springer, 10(1), pp.
23-50
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Clima
41
26
caso:
Recursos hídricos
Población en general
ASIÁTICO
Afganistán
Resumen:
Before 1960, the Aral Sea was the fourth-largest body of water on Earth.
Today, it is on the edge of extinction. The Sea is fed by Central Asia's two
major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, with a flow, respectively, of
about 70 and 35 cubic kilometers per year on average. Today, the Aral story
is quite well known to environmental groups within and outside the region.
The Amu Daryarsquos watercourse serves as an international border between
Tajikistan and Afghanistan and between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The
Amu Darya crisscrosses Turkmenistan and, for the most part, traverses the
length of Uzbekistan and its subregion known as Karakalpakstan. Although
an upstream riparian country, Afghanistan has been at war for a couple of
decades and in-country conflict remains. As a result, it has had little
opportunity to lay claim to its legitimate share of Amu Darya water. With an
end to the Russo-Afghan war, an end to the Taliban regime, and with
international involvement to bring a semblance of peace and stability to the
country in the conflict-laden post-Taliban period, the new Afghan
government will surely lay claim to a significant share of Amu Darya water
as it reconstructs the nationrsquos agricultural sector. This paper discusses
issues related to the problems and prospects for sustainable development in
the Amu Darya basin.
2005
GLANTZ, M.H.
2004
―Usable Science 9: El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable
Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands. Report held 13-16
September,
Galapagos
Islands,
Ecuador‖,
in
Reporte
(http://ccb.colorado.edu/galapagos/report/index.html). Centro Internacional
para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (Ecuador)-Consortium of
Capacity Building, University of Colorado.
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Fenómeno El Niño
caso:
Alerta temprana
Población en general
Varios países
42
Resumen:
The convening of a workshop on ―El Niño Early Warning for Sustainable
Development in Pacific Rim Countries and Islands ‖ was inspired by the
deliberations of an earlier workshop held in Shanghai, China in October 2003
on Early Warning Systems: Do‘s and Don‘ts. The Galapagos workshop was
27
the ninth ―Usable Science‖ workshop organized by CCB in the past ten years.
This workshop was co-organized by Jose Luis Santos of CIIFEN (Centro
Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño). Several of the
Usable Science workshops were linked to various aspects related to El Niño:
forecasting, impacts, responses to forecasts and responses to impacts of El
Niño, and the extreme meteorological events that an El Niño often spawns.
The goal of the Galapagos meeting was to regionalize early warning systems
geographically and to focus on a specific climate-related phenomenon – El
Niño. El Niño is known with varying degrees of reliability to spawn climateand weather-related hazards in many parts of the globe. Knowledge of El
Niño, coupled with El Niño forecasts, provides one of the earliest warnings
of possible climate-related impacts problems that a government decision
maker or the manager of a climate-sensitive industry might receive in time to
take action.
2004
GLANTZ, M.H.
S/D
―Environmental problems in drylands: Challenges and tradeoffs for
society‖, in Challenges for Drylands in the New Millenium. A Cross-Cutting
Approach for Assessment (Z. Adeel, D. Clancy and a. Dubreuil, eds.)
Proceedings of a Joint UNU-MA-ICARDA International Workshop UNUINWEH, pp. 10-32.
Continente AMERICANO-CANADÁ
ED
Estudio de Amenazas ambientales relacionadas con el cambio climático
caso:
Manejo ambiental
Población en general
ASIÁTICO
Uzbekistán
43
Resumen:
An International Workshop on "Challenges for Drylands in the New
Millennium: A Cross-Cutting Approach for Assessment" was held in
Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on 11-15 August.
Over 30 experts in dryland management from 15 countries participated in
the workshop to capitalize on existing efforts aimed at sustainable
development of drylands; explore the role of dryland ecosystem goods and
services in promoting such development; and address the challange of
desertification from the perspective of "human-induced impairment of the
provision of ecosystem goods and services." It was organized jointly by
United Nations University (UNU), Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA),
and ICARDA.
At the opening ceremony, Dr Raj Paroda, Regional
Coordinator of ICARDA's Central Asia and the Caucasus Program,
welcomed the participants on behalf of ICARDA Director General Prof. Dr
Adel El-Beltagy. In his remarks, he assured those gathered that ICARDA is
ready to move towards "new opportunities for partnership with other
28
international and national institutions to attain the goal of sustainable
development of dryland agriculture for improved livelihood in dryland
ecosystems."
At the opening session, participants were greeted by Dr Zafar Adeel, who
represented Dr Hans van Ginkel, Rector, UNU, and Dr Angela Cropper, Cochair, MA Scientific Assessment Panel. Dr Sherali Nurmatov, Deputy
Minister of Agriculture, Uzbekistan, and Director General, Uzbek Scientific
Production Center of Agriculture, addressed the participants and extended
warm greetings on behalf of the Government of Uzbekistan. He emphasized
the importance of dryland agriculture in Central Asia and expressed
appreciation for the joint effort of ICARDA and UNU in organizing the
workshop, which has great relevance for sustainability of drylands in all
Central Asian countries.
2004
GLANTZ, M.H.
2003 ―Usable Science 8: Early Warning Systems: Do's and Don'ts. Report
of workshop held 20-23 October
in Shangai, China‖, in Reporte
(http://ccb.colorado.edu/warning/docs/report.pdf)
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Eventos Climáticos
caso:
Alerta temprana
Población en general
44
Resumen:
The objective of this Usable Science Workshop on early warning was to
identify lessons -- in short, do's and don'ts -- from the wide range of
experiences of those who have worked with or helped to develop early
warning systems for a wide range of societal concerns. Many early warning
systems are in operation today to warn the public and governments about
impending climate- or weather-related hazards and other threats. The
insights, lessons, and experiences identified in the workshop are being used
to inform government officials, as well as decision makers in various
government agencies and non-governmental organizations, about how to
prepare effective warnings and to educate the media and the general public
about how to interpret such warnings. In sum, our goal was to identify ways
to make early warnings of potential "threats" to society and the environment
more useful, usable, credible, and reliable.
2003
GLANTZ, M.H.
S/D
―Guidelines for Establishing Audits of AGricutlural-ENvironmental
(AG-EN) Hotspots‖, in Environmental and Natural Resources Service,
Sustainable Development Department, Paper no. 15 FAO
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
45
29
ED
Estudio de
caso:
Amenazas ambientales relacionadas con el cambio climático
manejo de recursos naturales-Alimentación
Población en riesgo ante inseguridad alimentaria
2002
Resumen:
Starting in 1999, the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and
Mapping Systems (FIVIMS) Secretariat
in FAO has published an annual report on global Food Insecurity and
Vulnerability (see:
http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y7352E/Y7352E00.HTM). The report, The State of World Food Insecurity, known
as SOFI - assembles, analyses and disseminates information on who are the
food insecure, where they are
located, and why they are food insecure, nutritionally vulnerable or at risk.
The Environment and Natural Resources Service (SDRN) of the Sustainable
Development Department, FAO, has
been involved through the preparation of maps and analyses. As food
insecurity can often be correlated with
difficulties in making proper use of natural resources, it was considered that it
would be useful to produce regular
analyses about areas where ecological processes or agricultural production
are disrupted due to conflicts between
environment and agriculture. Such areas are termed agriculturalenvironmental hotspots, or Ag-En hotspots.
The emphasis is thus on non-optimal functioning of ecosystems, agriculture,
or both. "Environment" includes
natural, social, economic and cultural aspects.
A brainstorming meeting was organized on 9-10 December 2002 in FAO
headquarters to define Ag-En hotspot
products that could be prepared based on data availability and on demand,
with internal (FAO) and external
partners. A discussion paper was prepared in advance by Michael Glantz,
Senior Scientist in the Environmental
and Societal Impacts Group at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.
Based on the discussions held at the meeting, Dr Glantz revised the
discussion paper, which is presented here as
Guidelines for Establishing Audits of Agricultural-Environmental (Ag-En)
Hotspots.
The report serves multiple objectives, starting with terminology and
delineation of concepts. Terms like
hotspots, risk, vulnerability, extreme factor, hazard, chronic vs acute
hotspots, and the scale at which hotspots
are defined demand closer consideration.
30
Ag-En hotspots themselves can be analysed from twin points of view: first,
the mechanisms that cause them, and,
second, themes such as soil, water shortage, land degradation, biodiversity,
food security (as in FIVIMS),
livelihoods and nutrition. The following points are also listed among those to
which the meeting participants were asked to pay particular
attention: monitoring issues, including mapping, thresholds and the
possibility of "predicting" future probable hotspots 5 or 10 years ahead;
conceptual, causal and thematic links between hotspots, disasters and
sustainability; variables and indicators that will be required as a function of
an Ag-En hotspot typology, including geographical location, scale, reliability,
etc. Appropriate emphasis should be given to nonenvironmental forcing
variables, such as civil unrest, poor resource endowment, and trade.
As mentioned above, the meeting also drew attention to the possibility of
identifying mechanisms or patterns that could lead to the development of
hotspots in the future, as, for instance, when well-known chronic stresses
become acute problems confronting policy-makers.
1997
GLANTZ, M.H.
S/D
―Using Science Against Famine: Food Security, Famine Early
Warning, and El Nino‖, in Internet Journal of African Studies; Department of
Social and Economic Studies, University of Bradford. ISSN 1363-2964
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Hambruna
caso:
Alerta temprana
Población en riesgo ante inseguridad alimentaria
1993
Varios países
46
Resumen:
This special issue of IJAS contains papers from a conference held in
Budapest, Hungary in late 1993. Several of the papers have been updated and
a couple of new contributions have been added.
The conference was the first in a series of "Usable Science" workshops
designed to investigate the use of information about El Niño events in the
equatorial Pacific Ocean in designing food security systems in sub-Saharan
Africa. It was supported by the Climate Unit of the United Nations
Environment Programme, the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance of the
United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the
Consortium for Capacity Building (CCB), formerly of the US National
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Each of the the Usable Science workshops was developed and chaired by
Michael Glantz. Given the apparent recurrence of natural and human threats
to food security in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa, it is hoped that
31
the publication of these discussion papers on "Usable Science: Food Security,
Early Warning and El Niño" will help to reduce the frequency and intensity
of such threats.
2001
GLANTZ, M.H. (ed)
S/D ―Once Burned, Twice Shy?‖ in Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El
Niño, United Nations University, Tokio. ISBN: 9280810634
Continente ASIÁTICO-Japón
ED
Estudio de Fenómeno El Niño
caso:
Alerta temprana
Población en general
0
Varios países
47
Resumen:
The adage "once burned, twice shy" suggests that when someone has had a
bad experience, he or she is likely to shy away from being in the same
situation again, having better learned to deal with it. By analogy, do societies
that are forced to cope with recurring natural hazards learn from history?
This assessment reviews forecasts and societal impacts of the 1997-98 El
Niño. Underlying this review is a look at the climate-related early warning
and natural disaster preparedness systems in a number of countries with the
objective of improving their El Niño- and other climate-related coping
mechanisms. The following locations are targeted in this study: Bangladesh,
China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya,
Mozambique, Panama Canal, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru,
Philippines, and Vietnam. Based on the lessons drawn from these studies, key
research and policy needs are identified in this book.
Several ideas are presented for developing regional and national natural
disaster preparedness plans for coping with the impacts of El Niño Southern
Oscillations's warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events.
2008
GLANTZ, MICHAEL AND Q. YE
2008
―An essay on the interactions between climate and society‖, in
Frontiers of Earth Science in China, Springer, Vol 2, no. 3, pp. 356-363 .
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático global
caso:
Planeación ambiental-Social
Población en general
48
32
Resumen:
There has been increasing concern about the lack of involvement by social
scientists and humanists in a global change program, although many social
scientists are already involved in various aspects of research on
environmental change, and their research interests are clearly central to a
global change research agenda. Based on a historical review, the role of
social science disciplines as well as social science institutes in an emerging
multidecadal global change program is discussed. Both ―plan of action‖ and
―plan of inaction‖ are suggested to avoid potential pitfalls due to the rush
development of a social science program into the existing global climate
change problem.
2009
GLANTZ, MICHAEL H., (EDITOR)
S/D
―Heads Up! Early Warning Systems for Climate, Water and
Weather‖, in CCB | INSTAAR | UN-University Press
(http://ccb.colorado.edu/warning/headsup.html)
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Amenazas relacionadas con el clima, agua y tiempo, Huracanes,
inundaciones, calentamiento global, tsunamis, volcanes, etc.
caso:
Sistema de Alertas Tempranas
Población en general
2007 varios
varios ejemplos
49
Resumen:
The forces of nature can have deadly and damaging consequences for
societies and ecosystems that stand in their path. Early warning systems offer
one of the best defenses against the adverse effects of climate, water, weather
and geologic hazards, although far too often this realization is made after
disaster strikes.
2009
GLANTZ, MICHAEL; RENÉ GOMMES AND SELVARAJU
RAMASAMY
S/D ―Coping with a Changing Climate: Considerations for adaptation and
Mitigation in Agriculture‖, in UN(FAO)
(http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1315e/i1315e00.htm)
EUROPEO-ROMA
Estudio de Cambio Climático
caso:
Agricultura
Agricultores y tomadores de decisiones
2009 ASIATICO
Vietnam, Mongolia
50
Resumen:
Changing climatic conditions are projected to affect food security from the
33
local to global level. The predictability in rainy season patterns will be
reduced, while the frequency and intensity of severe weather events such as
floods, cyclones and hurricanes will increase; other predicted effects will
include prolonged drought in some regions; and water shortages; and changes
in the location and incidence of pest and disease outbreaks. Growing demand
for biofuels from crops can place additional pressure on the natural resource
base. New policy driven options are required to address the emerging
challenges of attaining improved food security.
The first two chapters of this book presents historical evidence of relationship
between climate and food security, as well as current challenges of world
food security posed by climate change. The ―introduction‖ chapter highlights
the need for baseline diagnostics on impacts, vulnerability and resiliency
patterns and decision making under uncertainty. Chapter 2 elaborates on the
impacts of climate change on agriculture and stresses how to effectively
address these impacts, focusing on ecosystem goods and services and social
well being. The chapter on ―the setting: baseline information‖ underlines that
mapping, such as capacity to cope in a country, is as important as mapping
vulnerabilities to climate variability and change.
Climate change adaptation strategies are now a matter of urgency. Many
potential adaptation options in agriculture have mitigation synergies, and
similarly, several mitigation options for climate change could generate
significant benefits for both food security and adaptation. Chapter 3 on
―Adaptation and mitigation‖ introduces the ―four laws of ecology‖ and
presents their continuing relevance to policy-makers when they identify,
develop and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies.
In regard to climate change and the likelihood that future characteristics of
climate will change in unknown ways, the existing ―best practices‖ should be
viewed as providing a source of tactical short-term response to a changing
environment as opposed to untested strategic long-term responses.
Chapter 4 on ―What to do at the national level‖ elaborates the fact that climate
impacts and response mechanisms in the near term future are likely to be
similar to those of the recent past, barring any abrupt changes in the
atmosphere‘s local and global climatic characteristics.
Most climate impacts of concern to policy-makers are local. Adaptation and
mitigation measures, which require poverty reduction and food security, must
be customized to benefit the neediest of the needy. Chapter 5 on ―Short-term
and long-term policy options‖ focuses on decision making under
uncertainties; improved ways of identifying most at-risk communities and
coping with current climate variability and extremes; and improved ways of
integrating present-day tactical and ―best practice‖ responses with the longerterm strategic needs.
The conclusion has key take-home messages from the FAO high level
conference on ―World Food Security: The Challenges of Climate Change and
Bioenergy‖ are presented along with closing thoughts about having ―no
adaptation recommendations without ramifications‖ as well as suggestions for
policy-driven strategic thinking about adaptation to and mitigation of climate
change with a focus on improved food security.
34
2004
GOMMES, R., J DU GUERNY, M.H. GLANTZ, L-N SHU
2004
―Climate and HIV/AIDS: A Hotspots Analysis for Early Warning
Rapid Response Systems‖, UNDP-FAO-NCAR, Sept. ISBN 974-92327-6-3
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático-Salud
caso:
Agricultura-Salud
Población en general-Población viviendo con VIH-Sida
ASIÁTICO
Sudeste asiático
51
Resumen:
Identifying possible interrelations between climate and HIV/AIDS might
seem, at first glance, far fetched.
But is it really so? One might form a different opinion after reading this
paper. Sceptics might also think that such topics would have no policy or
programmatic relevance. Again, when centred on the concept of hotspots, in
which climatic factors can play an important role, it begins to be clear that
certain aspects of climate are useful within the framework of an Early
Warning Rapid Response System (EWRRS) for HIV/AIDS. Thus, early
warning systems for HIV/AIDS can produce synergies with other warning
systems, for example in agriculture and food security, which can also be
climate dependent.
UNDP South East Asia HIV and Development Programme (UNDPSEAHIV) has published several papers focusing on agriculture and its
importance in HIV/AIDS epidemics, both in itself and in the context of rural
communities. Following a bad crop, indebted farmers migrate to access other
resources or, worse, can be driven to close their eyes on what can happen to
their children. Climate factors become important in such a context.
This paper is a first application by FAO's Environment and Natural
Resources Service of the hotspots concept to an issue where environment and
agriculture play a complex role. It fonns a package with another recent paper,
Environment and Agriculture Interactions: Implications for HIV and other
infectious diseases,1 which examines HIV/AIDS, together with other
infectious diseases, within the immediate physical environment of rural
communities and households. The two papers form building blocks of the
knowledge base of the UNDP-SEAHIV Programme. Furthermore,
considering the papers together, as well as in relation to the concept of the
Early Warning Rapid Response System, opens new possibilities for
interventions which can reinforce and complement the present health efforts
and strategies.
This treatment of root causes of HIV vulnerability puts into question
traditional frameworks and challenges those in research - as well as those in
action — to consider in a more holistic framework HIV/AIDS and other
infectious diseases which are related to changes introduced by development.
35
A word of caution: this paper is very much work in progress, limited to
exploring some issues, opening doors onto others. Its main purpose is to
encourage readers to join in this investigation of some of the complexities of
HIV/AIDS. It is hoped that it will constitute the basis for further exploration
of the interrelations between HTV/AIDS and the environment.
2000
GRAINGER, ALLAN, MARK STAFFORD SMITH, VICTOR R.
SQUIRES, EDUARD GLENN
2000
―Desertification, and climate change: the case for greater
convergence‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol 5, no. 4, pp. 361-377.
AMERICANO E.U.A.
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Grupos de investigación
52
Resumen:
Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is
limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification
projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat
Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change
(FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could
overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and
benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment;
accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surfaceatmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence
would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry
areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer
cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking
between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the
framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both
strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to
provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
2005
GÜLKAN, POLAT
2005
―An Analysis of Risk Mitigation Considerations in Regional
Reconstruction in Turkey: The Missing Link‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol. 10, no. 3, July, pp. 525-540.
AMERICANO-E.U.A.
Estudio de Sismos
caso:
Reconstrucción
Gobiernos, población en general
53
36
1999 EUROPEO-ASIÁTICO
Turquía
Resumen:
Turkey's disastrous earthquakes in 1999 required a monumental task for
rebuilding the affected regions. This has now been largely completed by the
massive loans borrowed from international institutions and domestic
resources. The organization of the resources to accomplish reconstruction is
described. Yet, having successfully accomplished the tasks of addressing the
long-term needs of the victims in terms of reconstruction/restoration of lost
homes and businesses, and dealing with the disruption that the disaster has
caused in community life, cannot be viewed as signs that success has been
achieved. This article stresses that once the initial shock of the disaster has
worn off, institutional adjustments required for mitigation for future disasters
have not been enacted vigorously.
2005
HAQUE, C., IAN BURTON
2005 ―Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability
Mitigation: An International Perspective‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 10, no. 3, July, , pp. 335-353
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Población en general
Resumen: The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge
and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be
applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change.
Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of
increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international
perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass
experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its
associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes
of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes.
Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in
enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes),
quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The
goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including
social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation
measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These
components are expected to make significant contributions to policy
considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much
uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of
the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of
54
37
scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical
parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events
are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional
climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to
predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against
any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this
volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and
decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing
disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and
physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‗climate
change adaptation plans‘, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons
from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation
strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and
cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory
process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes
concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is
that there is a need to move towards the ‗mission‘ of the International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient
communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster
reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal
of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural
hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of
best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and
understanding in policy and decision making.
55
2009
HEIFETZ, RONALD, ALEXANDER GRASHOW, MARTY LINSKY
2009 ―Build and Adaptive Culture: Key Tactics for Improving the
Organization's Ability to Tackle Adaptive Challenges‖ in Cap. 2 de The
Practice of Adaptive Leadership: Tools and Tactics for Changing Your
Organization and the World Harvard Business Press
AMERICANO-E.U.A.
Continente
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Organización institucional y comunitaria
Población en general
Fostering an adaptive culture will enable your organization or community to
Resumen:
meet an ongoing series of adaptive challenges into the future. Althoug
building adaptive capacity is a medium- and long-term goal, it can only
happen by movilizing today. Every challenge you currently face is another
opportunity to both work the immediate problem and institute ways of
operating that can become norms for taking on whatever comes next. In this
chapter, the authors identify five distinguishing characteristics of an adaptive
culture and explore a few things you can do to improve your organization's
rating on each criterion.
38
1996
HENDERSON-SELLERS, A.
1996 ―Climate modelling, uncertainty and responses to predictions of
change‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol 1, number 1, pp. 1-21.
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Entendimiento del cambio climático
Población en general
Resumen: Article 4.1(F) of the Framework Convention on Climate Change commits all
parties to take climate change considerations into account, to the extent
feasible, in relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions
and to employ methods such as impact assessments to minimize adverse
effects of climate change. This could be achieved by,inter alia, incorporating
climate change risk assessment into development planning processes i.e.
relating climatic change to issues of habitability and sustainability.
Adaptation is an ubiquitous and beneficial natural and human strategy. Future
adaptation (or, better, adjustment) to climate is inevitable at the least to
decrease the vulnerability to current climatic impacts. The urgent issue is the
mismatch between the predictions ofglobal climatic change and the need for
information onlocal to regional change in order to develop adaptation
strategies. Mitigation efforts are essential since the more successful
mitigation activities are, the less need there will be for adaptation responses.
Moreover, mitigation responses can be global (e.g. a uniform percentage
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions) while adaptation responses will be
local to regional in character and therefore depend upon confident predictions
of regional climatic change. The dilemma facing policymakers is that
scientists have considerable confidence in likely global climatic changes but
virtually zero confidence in regional changes. Mitigation and adaptation
strategies relevant to climatic change can most usefully be developed in the
context of sound understanding of climate, especially the near-surface
continental climate, permitting discussion of societally relevant issues.
Unfortunately, climate models cannot yet deliver this type of regionally and
locationally specific prediction and some aspects of current research even
seem to indicate increased uncertainty. These topics are explored in this
paper using the specific example of the prediction of land-surface climate
changes.
56
2005
HWACHA, VALERIAH
2005 ―Canada's Experience in Developing a National Disaster Mitigation
Strategy: A Deliverative Dialogue Approach‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol 10, no. 3, July, pp. 507-523
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
57
39
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Planeación Gubernamental
Población en general
AMERICANO
Canadá
Resumen:
Canada is vulnerable to a wide range of natural and human-induced disasters.
Recent experience with major natural disasters demonstrated that more needs
to be done to protect Canadians from the impacts of future disasters. The
Government of Canada, through the Department of Public Safety and
Emergency Preparedness Canada, has conducted consultations with
provinces, territories and stakeholders to develop a national disaster
mitigation strategy (NDMS) aimed at enhancing Canada's capacity to prevent
disasters before they occur and promoting the development of disasterresilient communities. This paper provides an overview of Canada's
emergency management and hazards context. It reports on the preliminary
findings of consultations with stakeholders and evaluates the usefulness of
the deliberative dialogue methodology that was used to facilitate the
consultations. Examples that are illustrative of recent Canadian efforts on
disaster mitigation and the challenges respecting the development and future
implementation of a NDMS are also discussed.
1997
IGLESIAS, A., M.T. MINGUEZ
1997 ―Modelling Crop-Climate Interactions in Spain: Vulnerability and
Adaptation of Different Agricultural Systems to Climate Change‖ Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 1, number 3, pp.
273-288
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura-Economía
Agricultores
EUROPEO
España
58
Resumen:
This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and
water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which
represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated
effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting
effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and
changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on
the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as
40
maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water
availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of
production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat,
productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward
shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study
considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the
optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
2003
IKEME, JEKWU
2003 ―Climate Change Daaptational Deficiencies in Developing Countries:
the Case of Sub-Saharan Africa‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, Springer, vol 8, no. 1, pp. 29-52.
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Comunidad internacional
AFRICANO
Africa Sub-sahariana
59
Resumen:
Adaptation is nowrecognized as an inevitable component ofthe overall
climate change responsestrategy. For a developing region likesub-Saharan
Africa with low greenhouse gasemissions and high vulnerability to
theimpacts of climate change, the importanceof adaptation in climate change
policy iseven more fundamental. This paper examined alook at the
adaptational preparedness ofthe sub-Saharan African region to
climatechange. Clearly evident in theenvironmental strategy and
developmentfocus of these countries is lack ofrecognition of the need to
adapt, poorincentive to adapt and low capacity toadapt to climate change.
This furtherexacerbates their vulnerability and hasimplications for the global
climate changeresponse strategy. Unfortunately, fewattempts have been made
to understand thestructural reasons underlying the pervasivepattern of
adaptational unpreparedness inthe region, neither has there been
acomprehensive and systematic analysis ofhow to remedy this problem. This
paper is acontribution in this regard. It alsohighlights the factors to
whichinternational community need to payattention, if it truly wishes to make
itsefforts at adaptation more global inscope.
1997
KAPETANAKI, G., C. ROSENZWEIG
1997 ―Impact of Climate Change on Maize Yield in Central and Northern
Greece: A Simulation with Ceres-Maize‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 1 number 3, pp. 251-271
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
60
41
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura-economía
Agricultores
EUROPEO
Grecia
Resumen: The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two
maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central
and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and
Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support
System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop
simulations, with current and possible future management practices.
Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the
GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient
scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These
scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in
solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the
study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and
yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate
change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to
reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses
showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through
earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher
kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be
extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize
varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
2005
KELMAN, ILAN
2005 ―Learning from disasters‖ in Science Journal: Science Careers from
the Journal Science American Association for the Advancement of
Science/HighWire Press
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Prevención de desastres urbanos
Población en general
2000 EUROPEO
Reino Unido Londres
61
Resumen:
It's not every day that the subject of your doctoral research project makes
headlines on national television. But that's just what happened to Ilan Kelman
when, in autumn 2000, image of British Prime Minister Tony Blair talking to
flood-affected people and Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott wading
42
through floodwaters made the national news. "A lot of people suffered and
the flooding hit the political radar," recalls Kelman, whose work focuses on
disasters, their effects on the built environment, and the vulnerabilities of
communities.
2005
KELMAN, ILAN, J. BARRET
2005 ―Pay now to save later. An interview with Ilan Kelman, disaster
expert, who examines the lessons of Hurricamens Katrina and Rita and what
needs to be done to prevent another catastrophe‖ (MSNBC.com).
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A
ED
Estudio de Huracán
caso:
Prevención de desastres
Población en general
62
Resumen:
An interview with Ilan Kelman, disaster expert, who examines the lessons of
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and what needs to be done to prevent another
catastrophe.
1999
KLEIN, R.J.T., D.C. MACIVER
1999
―Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Methodological
Issues‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer,
vol 4, number 3-4, pp. 189-198
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Taller de Adaptación
Grupos de investigación
1998 AMERICANO
Costa Rica
63
Resumen:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a
Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in
1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many
research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the
Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of
methodologies for adaptation science.
64
1999
KLEIN, R.J.T., R.J. NICHOLLS, N. MIMURA
1999 ―Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Can the IPCC Technical
Guidelines be applied?‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
43
Change, Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, pp. 239-252.
AMERICANO-E.U.A
Cintinente
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Respuesta a posibles amenazas originadas por el cambio climático
Gobiernos
Resumen:
This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for
coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines
focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and
empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation
embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sealevel rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more
complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective,
an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested,
including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and
design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incomplete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments
constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the
relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and
policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework
for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes
and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.
1996
KONRAD, HERMAN W.
1996
―Caribbean tropical storms: ecological implications for prehispanic
and contemporary Maya subsistence practices on the Yucatan peninsula‖ in
Revista Mexicana del Caribe, año 1, pp. 99-130 ó en: Revista de la
Universidad de Yucatán, vol. 18, no. 224/2 (edición especial), enero-marzo,
Mérida, UADY, pp. 99-126
Continente AMERICANO-MÉXICO
ED
Estudio de Tormentas tropicales y huracanes
caso:
Población de la península de Yucatán
AMERICANO
México Yucatán Mérida
65
Resumen:
The ecological stress factor of hurricanes is examined as a dimension of preHispanic Maya adaptation to a tropical forest habitat in the Yucatan
peninsula. Pre-Hispanic, colonial and contemporary texts as well as climatic
data from the Caribbean region support the thesis that the hurricane was an
integral feature of the pre-Hispanic Maya cosmology and ecological
44
paradigm. The author argues that destruction of forests by tropical storms and
subsequent succession cycles mimic not only swidden -"slash-and-burn"agriculture, but also slower, natural succession cycles. With varying degrees
of success, flora and fauna adapt to periodic, radical ecosystem disruption in
the most frequently hard-hit areas. While not ignoring more widely-discussed
issues surrounding the longevity and decline of pre-Hispanic Maya
civilization, such as political development, settlement patterns, migration,
demographic stability, warfare and trade, the author suggests that effective
adaptation to the ecological effects of tropical storms helped determine the
success of pre-Hispanic Maya subsistence strategies.
2000
LASCO, RODEL D., FLORENCIA PULHIN
2000 ―Forest land use change in the Philippines and climate change
mitigation‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol 5, no. 1, pp. 81-97
Continente AMERICANO- .U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Manejo de recursos forestales
Población en general
ASIÁTICO
Filipinas
66
Resumen:
Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and
sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests
in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha
(106 ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (1015 g) of C to
theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest
land uses store 1091 Tg(1012 g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr
whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year
2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg)
andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend
is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree
plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still
exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity
data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks,
expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here
weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to
Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development
efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve
assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.
67
1999
LEARY, N.A.
45
1999 ―A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate
Change and Climate Variability‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, pp. 307-318
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Manejo de recursos
Población en general
Resumen:
The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are
dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their
changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix
and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities,
and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise
result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both
climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The
framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of
climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents.
The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty
regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in
adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty
about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the
investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is
possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation,
it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present
value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are
discussed in the paper.
2005
MALANOWSKI, JOHN
2005 ―Leveraging the New Human Capital: Adaptive Strategies, Results
Achieved, and Stories of Transformation (Book Review)‖ in Human
Resource Planning, September, Davies Black Publishing
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de
caso:
Adaptación
Población en general
68
Resumen:
Leveraging the New Human Capital focuses the reader upon the growing
shape fo the Information Age Workforce. It stresses the differences between
the Industrial Age worker, and the Information Age worker. Burud and
Tumolo classify this new worker as "dual-focus", meaning that the worker is
focused on both home and work life instead of only work. In order to survive
46
in the Information Age, businesses must create an adaptive culture. In the
adaptive culture, processes (compensation/benefits(work-life) must become
individualized. It is their belief that if those issues are standarized, they create
inequity in the...
2005
MCBEAN, G.A.
2005 ―Risk Mitigation Strategies for Tornadoes in the Context of Climate
Change and Development‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Climate Change, Springer, vol 10, no. 3, July, pp. 357-366
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Tornados
caso:
Manejo ambiental
Población en general
AMERICANO
Canadá
69
Resumen:
Mitigation strategies for natural hazards will always be dealing with risk.
With climate change bringing a new set of risks, each with its uncertainties,
the risk manager has new challenges. Since natural hazards like tornadoes
have large impacts and divert resources towards mitigation and recovery,
changing natural hazards are a factor affecting development. In this paper, an
analysis of tornado risk in Canada in the context of a changing climate is
given which leads to the conclusion that risk-management strategies should
assume more frequent events in the future.
Resultado:
2009
MCGREGOR, Duncan, David BARKER, Donovan CAMPBELL
2009 ―Environmental change and Caribbean Food Security: recent hazard
impacts and domestic food production in Jamaica‖, in Global Change and
Caribbean Vulnerability: Environment, Economy and Society at Risk. UWI
Press
Continente AMERICANO-Jamaica
ED
Estudio de Desastres agrícolas
caso:
Producción agrícola-Alimentación
población rural
AMERICANO
Jamaica St Elizabeth
70
Resumen:
It is now almost universally accepted that global warming is taking place
(IPCC, 2007; Gamble, this volume). I is also generally accepted that the net
47
effects of global warming on agriculture, through a combination of global
temperature increases, regional variations in rainfall and global increases in
CO2 levels, will be negative on developing areas as a whole (see, for
example, Reilly, 1996; Reilly and Graham, 2000; Adger et al., 2003; Parry et
al., 2004) The effects of global warming on Caribbean agriculture were
postulated (for example, McGregor, 1995; Watts, 1995; McGregor & Potter,
1997) against a background of structural weaknesses in the profile of
Caribbean agriculture (Barker, 1993). There are two effects to be considered;
firstly, the effects across the Caribbean Basin of more gradual changes in
environmental parameters such as temperature and rainfall. Secondly, there
is the more obvious effect of the damage caused in specific locations by
single high-magnitude events such as hurricanes. This chapter examines the
implications for food security, defined here specifically as the viability of
agricultural production systems. A case study of a distinctive marginal
farming system in rural Jamaica (southern St Elizabeth) is considered in
terms of the effects of recent, but cumulative, environmental changes upon it.
The focus is on agricultural marginalisation within a complex of regional
physical and local societal forces.
2005
MILETI, Dennis, Julie GAILUS
2005
―Sustainable Development and Hazards Mitigation in the United
States: Disasters by Design Revisited‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol 10, no. 3, July, pp. 491-504
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Respuesta científica y tecnológica
Comunidad científica
AMERICANO
Estados Unidos
71
Resumen:
It has become clear that natural and related technological hazards and
disasters are not problems that can be solved in isolation. The occurrence of
disasters is a symptom of broader and more basic social problems. Since
1994, a team of over 100 expert academics and practitioners – including
members of the private sector – have assessed, evaluated, and summarized
knowledge about natural and technological hazards in the United States from
the perspectives of the physical, natural, social, behavioral, and engineering
sciences. The major thesis of the findings was losses from hazards and
inability to comprehensively reduce losses of all types are the consequences
of narrow and shortsighted development patterns, cultural premises, and
attitudes toward the natural environment, science, and technology. To address
these broad and basic problems, the study included proposals for ways in
which people and the institutions of the United States can take responsibility
48
for disaster losses, reduce future hazard losses, and link hazard mitigation to
sustainable development.
1999
MIZINA, S.V., J.B. SMITH, E. GOSSEN, K.F. SPIECKER, S.L.
WITKOWSKI
1999 ―An evaluation of adaptation options for climate change impacts on
agriculture in Kazakhstan‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, Springer, vol 4, number 1, pp. 25-41
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura-Economía
Productores agrícolas
ASIÁTICO
Kazajistán
72
Resumen:
Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be
reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist
economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will
affect Kazakhstan''s ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh
and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to
implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation
options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified
using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks,
developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds,
supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the
use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision
Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment
(using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits
estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM
uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy
objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest
benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively
cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the
most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of
different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional
centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market.
Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation
than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in
Kazakhstan''s National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively
easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can
be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages
between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with
additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
49
2002
MORTON, JOHN, DAVID BARTON
2002 ―Destocking as a Drought-mitigation Strategy: Clarifying Rationales
and Answering Critiques‖ in Disasters, Overseas Development Institute,
26(3) pp. 213-228. DOI: 10.1111/1467-7717.00201
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Sequía
caso:
Economía agrícola-ganadera
Población rural
AFRICANO
Kenya
73
Resumen:
The idea of externally assisted emergency destocking of pastoralists has
gained currency in recent years: increasing the incentives for pastoralists to
sell animals, or removing the constraints to selling animals in the early stages
of drought. We identify two separate rationales put forward by proponents of
destocking: environmental benefits and purchasing power/welfare benefits.
We consider wether specific recent critiques of 'new range ecology' and
specifically of 'tracking policies' do in fact provide arguments against
emergency destocking in pastoralist areas. We illustrate some of these themes
with a case study of a successful destrocking exercise in northern Kenya
where a very specific form of support was requested and received by
pastoralists themselves. The sorts of destocking that work are likely to have
significant effects on patoralist purchasing power at key points of the drought
cycle, but minimal effects on the environment. Clarifying these points will
make it easier to promote destocking as a drought-mitigation policy.
2009
NAES, LARS OTTO; MORWENNA SULLIVAN, JO KHINMAUNG,
PHILIPE CRAHAY, AGNES OTZELBERGER
2009 ―Changing climates, changing lives. Adaptation strategies of pastoral
and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia and Mali‖ in Reporte, Institute of
Development
Studies/
Action
Against
Hunger/Tearfund:
(http://www.ids.ac.uk/go/news/changing-climates-changing-lives-localvoices-and-adaptation-to-climate-change)
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Sequía
caso:
Productiva-organizativa
Pastores y Agro-pastores
2009 AFRICANO
Ethipía y Mali
74
50
Resumen:
This report identifies recommendations for different stakeholders and their
efforts to promote food security and climate-resilient livelihoods. They are
relevant for existing programmes, but also for programmes under new and
additional funding that becomes available for the implementation of
adaptation under a global post- 2012 climate change agreement.
2006
O'BRIEN, GEOF, PHIL O'KEEFE, JOANE ROSE, BEN WISNER
2006 ―Climate change and disaster management‖ in Disasters, Overseas
Development Institute, 30(1), pp.64-80
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00307.x
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Cambio Climático
caso:
Desarrollo de políticas de reducción del riesgo y la vulnerabilidad
Población en general
75
Resumen:
Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human
activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a
number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change,
institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk
assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do
not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building
and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all
likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing
vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so
requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional
structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance
governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks
will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.
2009
PHON TRAN, RAJIB SHAW, GUILLAUME CHANTRY, JOHN NORTON
2009 ―GIS and local knowledge in disaster managemente: a case study of
flood risk mapping in Viet Nam‖ in Disasters, Overseas Development
Institute 33(1):152-169. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2008.01067.x
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Integración de tecnologías modernas y autóctonas en el manejo de desastres
Población en general
2009 ASIATICO
Vietnam Thua Thien Hue Comunidad de Quang Tho
76
51
Resumen:
Linking community knowledge with modern techniques to record and
analyse risk related data is one way of engaging and mobilising community
capacity. This paper discusses the use of the Geographic Information System
(GIS) at the local level and the need for integrating modern technology and
indigenous knowledge into disaster management. It suggests a way to
mobilize available human and technical resources in order to strengthen a
good partnership between local communities and local and national
institutions. The paper also analyses the current vulnerability of two
communes by correlating hazard risk and loss/damage caused by disasters
and the contribution that domestic risk maps in the community can make to
reduce this risk. The disadvantages, advantages and lessons learned from the
GIS flood risk mapping project are presented through the case study of the
Quang Tho Commune in Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam.
2009
PORFIRIEV, BORIS
2009 ―Community resilience and vulnerability to disasters: Qualitative
models and megacities - a comparison with small towns‖ in Environmental
Hazards 8, Earthscan Journals, pp. 23-37
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Resiliencia en las Mega-ciudades
Población en general
2009 EUROPEO
Rusia
77
Resumen:
This paper contrasts the resilience to disasters of megacities with small
towns, using vulnerability as a key variable. As an instrument of this
comparison a formal model of the communities' vulnerability, further
deconstructed into a set of specific modules, is developed and used. It is
argued that the megacities' high resilience capacity in the main ensures only a
debilitating (although undoubtedly mayjor) effect on them by disaster agents.
Meanwhile, the impact on the small towns is often disastrous and sometimes
turns into a real catastrophe with some communities totally debastated.
However, this observacion does not preclude some notable exceptions. To
corroborate and highlight the key findings above,empirical data from the
Russian experience of the late twentied to early twenty-first centuries are
provided, supplemented by some international illustrations.
78
1997
PUNNING, J.M., T. TOFF, R. TANN, T. LUKKI
1997 ―The Sensitivity and Adaptation of Ecosystems to the Disturbances: A
Case Study in Northeastern Estonia‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
for Global Change, Springer, vol 2, number 1, pp. 1-17
52
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Impacto ambiental
EUROPEO
Estonia
Resumen:
The study focused on the problem of the response and adaptation of an
ecosystem to natural fire in case of greenhouse warming. The
palaeoecological approach was used and reconstructions were made for time
ca 6000 years ago, when the human impact in the studied area was absent or
very weak and the summer temperatures were about 2.4 degrees higher than
at the present time. The palaeoreconstructions were compiled using the
charcoal, pollen and diatoms data from the sediments of a northeast Estonian
lake. The results show that forest fires influenced the biota of the lake mainly
through evapotranspiration and the accompanying erosional changes. The
impacts of the fire directly to the lake ecosystem were short-term and the
primary diatom association was restored after 10–15 years. The pollen influx
was influenced by the fires mainly through the changes in the openness of the
landscape and the composition of the pollen spectra was restored over a
period of 50–60 years. The data demonstrate the high ability of the studied
ecosystem to adapt to the impact of natural fires in the climatic environment
comparable with that predicted for the future.
2002
RAMOS, CATARINA, EUSÉBIO REIS
2002
―Floods in Southern Portugal: their physical and human causes,
impacts and human response‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Climate Change, Springer, vol 7, no. 3, pp. 267-284
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Respuesta social-Economía
Población urbana
1979 EUROPEO
Portugal
79
Resumen:
Floods have been the most deadlynatural disasters in Portugal during the
lastcentury, followed by earthquakes. The typeof flood known as a
`progressive flood'mainly affects the larger basins, such asthat of the Tagus
River, and results in alarge inundated area. These floods arecaused by heavy
rains associated with awesterly zonal circulation that may persistfor weeks.
The system of dams within thebasin reduces the frequency of flooding,but
cannot `tame' the river. The dam systemhas even contributed to an increase in
53
thepeak flow, as in the 1979 flood.Nevertheless, these floods are not a
dangerfor the human population. In contrast, flashfloods are more dangerous
and deadlier thanprogressive floods, as demonstrated in 1967and 1997. They
affect the small drainagebasins and are caused by heavy andconcentrated
rainfall, created byconvective depressions (active cold poolsor depressions
caused by the interactionbetween polar and tropical air masses),active in the
south of the country, in theLisbon region, Alentejo and the
Algarve.Deforestation, soil impermeability, chaoticurbanization, building on
floodplains, theblockage of small creeks or theircanalisation, and the building
of walls andtransverse embankments along the smallcreeks all contribute to
the aggravation ofthis kind of flood.
2007
REDEKER, CORNELIA, BIANCA STALENBERG
2007 ―Urban flood protection: two strategies‖, in International Conference
on Water & Flood Management (ICWFM-2007) pp. 12-14
Continente ASIÁTICO-Bangladesh
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Expansión y contención fluvial
Población urbana
EUROPEO
Alemania
Resumen: Due to climate changes and urbanization processes, flood risk and the
inherent damage potential are increasing. Flood protection improvements are
inevitable - a challenge especially for urbanized areas. This is a research of
urban flood protection strategies capable of creating a surplus value for the
affected cities. The demand for improved flood protection can be approached
in two ways - via river containment, or via river expansion. While one deals
with the imporvement, alteration or replacement of the existing conventional
protection structures into multifunctional and adaptable flood defences, the
other aims for a more paradigmatic change - to integrate the river into urban
development in a more expansive way. This does not imply an either/or
approach between river containment and expansion, on the contrary, studies
are executed of different combinations of both urban flood protection
strategies. It aims for more differentiated solutions for specific Rhine river
cities regarding their cultural and material valuse, spactial capacities,
conversion processes within the city and, of course, the effects up- and
downstream.
80
81
2007
REID, SUSANNA, BARRY SMIT, WAYNE CALDWELL, SUZANNE
BELLIVEAU
2007 ―Vulnerability and adaptation to climate risks in Ontario agriculture‖
in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, Springer, vol
54
12, no. 4, may, pp. 609-637
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Manejo ambiental, Economía, Agricultura
Agricultores, Administradores
AMERICANO
Canadá Ontario Perth
Resumen:
A vulnerability approach to climate change adaptation research is employed
to explore prospects of agricultural adaptation to climatic variability and
change. The methodological approach focuses on the system of concern, in
this case, farms in Perth County, Ontario. Twenty-five interviews and four
focus groups with farmers were used to identify climate risks on farms, and
to document farmers‘ responses to conditions and risks associated with
climate and weather. The information collected describes a complex
decision-making environment, with many forces both external and internal to
the farm operation influencing management decisions. Within this
environment, climate and weather are consistently referred to as a significant
force influencing both farm operations and management decisions. Farmers
have, however, developed a wide-range of anticipatory and reactive
management strategies to manage climate risks. While these have potential to
address future climate-related risks and opportunities, there are limits to
adaptation, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events may exceed
their adaptive capacities. Farmers are also generally unaware and/or
unconcerned about future climate change, which could constrain
opportunities to adopt long-term climate change adaptations.
1999
RISBEY, J., M. KANDLIKAR, H. DOWLATABADI, D. GRAETZ
1999 ―Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to
climate variability and change‖ in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, Springer, vol 4, number 2, pp. 137-165
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura
Agricultores-Granjeros
OCEÁNICO
Australia
82
Resumen:
This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation,
emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals
and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The
55
framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate
variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case
study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of
individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model
highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty,
and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate
variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for
farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also
suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of
historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even
moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental
scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating
conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the
agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of
appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In
particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the
farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their
efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and
economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also
makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal,
which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study
highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information,
risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect,
background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation
processes in climate change studies.
2006
ROJAS BLANCO, ANA V.
2006 ―Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change‖ in Disasters,
30(1), DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00311.x, Overseas, Development
Institute, pp. 140-147
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Cambio Climático
caso:
Resiliencia a nivel local
Población en general
Resumen: Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and srength
of natural hazarads produced by climatic events. This paper presents some
examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks
at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and
implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate
climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their
projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects
designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of
83
56
local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a
need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia.
Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local
knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger
natural hazards.
2009
ROJAS, TERESA; JOSÉ LUIS MARTÍNEZ Y DANIEL MURILLO
2009
Cultura hidráulica y simbolismo mesoamericano del agua en el
México prehispánico, IMTA/CIESAS
Continente AMERICANO MÉXICO
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Protección del patrimonio
Agricultores
2006 AMERICANO
México Guerrero Alpuyeca Tecoyo
84
Resumen:
Entre las páginas 103-105 trata el estudio de caso de los trompesones, que
abordó Gerardo Gutiérrez en otros trabajos, vale la pena revisar todo el libro
porque habla de cultura hidráulica e infraestructura antigua y contemporánea.
1997
ROZENZWEIG, C., F.N. TUBIELLO
1997 ―Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agriculture:
Current Methodologies and Future Directions. An Introductory Essay‖ in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 1,
number 3, pp 219-232
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Manejo de recursos agrícolas
Agricultores
Varios países
Resumen: Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the
Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population
growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in
temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the
Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management,
critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion
papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat
(Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece,
and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting
and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to
85
57
improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on
agricultural production are discussed.
2009
SALDAÑA-ZORRILLA, SERGIO O., KRISTER SANDBERG
2009 ―Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human
migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico‖ in Disasters, 33(4), Overseas
Development Institute pp. 591-607. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2008.01089.x
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Eventos Climáticos
caso:
Producción Agrícola-Migración
Agricultores
2005 AMERICANO
México
86
Resumen:
Mexico's vasta human and environmental diversity offers an initial
framework for comprehending some of the prevailing disparities between
rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events
serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model,
this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the
emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and
adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters
as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on
emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters
were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico
between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to
dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates
around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood
to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore,
that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.
1998
SEITZ, STEFAN
1998 ―Coping Strategies in an Ethnic Minority Group: The Atea of Mount
Pinatubo‖ in Disasters, 22(1), Overseas Development Institute pp. 76-90
DOI: 10.1111/1467-7717.00076,
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Erupción volcánica
caso:
Economía-Sociedad
Minorías étnicas-indígenas
1991 ASIÁTICO
Filipinas Zambales
87
58
Resumen:
The particular problems arising in the aftermath of natural disasters in
indigenous societies in the Third World, especially in ethnic or cultural
minorities, have until now received little attention in social scientific
research. The potential of such indigenous groups to use their traditional
knowledge and behaviour patterns in coping with natural disasters has been
badly neglected. The example of the Aeta in Zambates, Philippines, a
marginal group who were hit directly by the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991,
shows how traditional economic and social behaviour can in some measure
determine their various survival strategies.
2006
SIAMBABALA BERNARD, MANYENA
2006 ―The concept of resilience revisited‖ in Disasters, 30(4) Overseas
Development Institute pp. 433-450. DOI: 10.1111/j.0361-3666.2006.00331.x
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Desastres en general
caso:
Definición del concepto Resiliencia
Población en general
88
Resumen:
The intimate connections between disaster recovery by and the resilience of
affected communities have become common features of disaster risk
reduction programmes since the adoption of the Hyogo Framework for
Action 2005-2015. Increasing attention is now paid to the capacity of
disaster-affected communities to 'bounce back' or to recover with little or no
external assistance following a disaster. This highlights the need for a change
in the disaster risk reduction work culture, with stronger emphasis being put
on resilience rather than just need or vulnerability. However, varied
conceptualisations of resilience pose new philosophical challenges. Yet
achieving a consensus on the concept remains a test for disaster research and
scholarship. This paper reviews the concept in terms of definitional issues,
the role of vulnerability in resilience discourse and its meaning, and the
differences between vulnerability and resilience. It concludes with some of
the more immediately apparent implications of resilience thinking for the
way we view and prepare for disasters.
1999
SMIT, B., I. BURTON, R.J.T. KLEIN, R. STREET
1999 ―The Science of Adaptation: A Framework for Assessment‖ in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 4,
number 3-4, pp. 199-213
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
89
59
Adaptación
Instituciones, políticas públicas
Resumen:
This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how
it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in
the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact
assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and
adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what
adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted
in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy
development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework
for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i)
adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation
occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate
extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts
in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include
purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and
performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation
in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the
evaluation of adaptive policy options.
2002
SMIT, BARRY, MARK W. SKINNER
2002 ―Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology‖ in
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7, no.
1, pp. 85-114
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Agricultura
Agricultores
AMERICANO
Canadá
90
Resumen:
Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact
andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change
policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having
thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related
toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology
of
adaptation
to
systematically
classify
and
characterize
agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the
Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in
agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers,
industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of
theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the
60
relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with
climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in
Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological
developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production
practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these
`directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that
maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most
adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public
policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing
climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions
(political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to
climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the
relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level
andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management
frameworks.
1999
SMITH, D.I.
1999 ―Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications
for Policy: An Example from Australia‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, pp. 331-342
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Economía, Infraestructura urbana
Población urbana
OCEÁNICO
Australia
91
Resumen:
Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse
effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is
however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in
flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for
three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess
changes to urban flood losses for the ''most wet'' and ''most dry'' scenarios for
the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood
damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry
scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The
socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to
consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government
authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major
changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response
is likely to be incremental and accord with the ''no regrets'' and the
precautionary principle''.
61
2006
STIGE, L.C., J. STAVE, K-S CHAN, L. CIANNELLI, N. PETTORELLI,
M.H. GLANTZ, H.R. HERREN, N.C. STENSETH
2006
―The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in
Africa‖, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 28,
vol. 103, no. 9, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0600057103 PNAS pp 3049-3053
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Producción agrícola
Productores de alimentos
AFRICANO
Varios países
92
Resumen:
Using national crop and livestock production records from 1091-2003 and
satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the
productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably
associated with El Niño Southern Oscilation and the North Atlantic
Oscillation. he causal relations of these results are partly understandable
through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African
rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production
in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for ≈20
million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global
climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate
models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected
by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop
selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillationbased and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing
season.
2002
TAURHULE, AONDOVER, MINK KO WOO
2002 ―Adaptations to the dynamics of rural water supply from natural
sources: A village example in semi-arid Nigeria‖ in Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 215-237
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Recursos hídricos
Población en general
AFRICANO
Nigeria
93
Resumen:
Domestic and agro-economic activities in the semi-arid region of Nigeria rely
62
exclusively on rainfall, streamflow and groundwater in deep and alluvial
(fadama) aquifers. Such water supply systems are subject to considerable
seasonal and inter-annual variability. However, a combination of the various
sources may mitigate the effects of water scarcity. This study describes the
dynamics of the water sources for a village in northeastern Nigeria as an
example that demonstrates the linkages between rainfall, streamflow and
groundwater. Such linkages are important for developing strategies to
mitigate the effects of climatic variation. Long-term records of rainfall were
not available at the site so that the short-term data was interpreted in the
context of the long-term climatic experience of the region. The stratigraphic
profile of the aquifer was developed from resistivity methods, to supplement
information obtained from well level hydrographs. Field observations and
analysis of the data reveal that the beginning of the rainy season is a
precarious period because none of the water sources are reliable. Rainfall
infiltration recharges the shallow aquifers while lateral water flux from the
floodwater-saturated fadama also contributes to water level rises in the deep
wells. A study of the water level changes in response to deepening of the
wells suggests that the wells are fed by an assortment of water-bearing lenses,
separated by layers of low transmissivity. One major finding of this study is
that there exists a close association between the wells in this riparian
community and the recharge processes within the fadama. Upstream
diversion, abstraction or impoundment could therefore undermine the
viability of aquifer exploitation by the communities in the riparian zone.
Analysis of the interactions among the various sources of water leads to the
identification of several potential adaptation strategies for confronting the
problem of water scarcity.
2010
VALENCIA-SANDOVAL, CECILIA, DAVID N. FLANDERS, ROBERT
KOZAKA
2010
―Participatory landscape planning and sustainable community
development: Methodological observations from a case study in rural
Mexico‖, in Landscape and Urban Planning 94 Elsevier, pp. 63-70
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Planeación territorial
caso:
población rural
2010 AMERICANO
México Jalisco Tapalpa
94
Resumen:
Most local authorities in rural Mexico lack relevant resourse data at
appropriate scales to develop community plans, even though planning and
development decisions are made largely at this level of government. Many
resource planning studies have been conducted in less developed areas of
Mexico, but these are of limited applicability to economies in rapid transition
63
facing tremendous internal developmental pressure, such as in the state of
Jalisco. In order to assist such local rural communities in Mexico achieve a
sustainable balance, a landscape analyses, classification, mapping as well as
various qualitative research methods, is described and analyzed. A site
analysis across the case municipality of Tapalpa identified major landscape
units, and environmental and socioeconomic issues, which were grouped into
major themes. Following interviews with community members, a
participatory workshop charrete was conducted, where local and institutional
stakeholders discussed issues uncovered during the interviews and landscape
analysis. A final set of sustainable development recommendations and
visualizations demonstrating potential outcomes was assembled for
legistlation and implementation. This study showed that community
engagement through the use of participatory landscape planning is an
effective means of informing and impacting local policy related to
sustainable community development in rural Mexico. Furthermore, it
demonstrates the laco of planning in landscapes outside of major population
centers, and the limited utility of existing policies which lac appropriate
scale and applicability to rural areas.
1996
VENEMA, HENRY D., ERIC SCHILLER, BRAD BASS
1996 ―Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation
to Drought in the Senegal River Basin‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation
Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol 1, number 2, pp. 139-165
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Sequía
caso:
Producción agrícola
Población rural
AFRICANO
Senegal
95
Resumen:
The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the
vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability.
Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of
agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and
adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of
social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of
production and how people interact with their environment. These
relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration
of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for
rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated
plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy
emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a
reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced
64
during the colonial period.
A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel
in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially
curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or
availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is
not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions,
this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and
desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource
management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized
management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative,
ldquoLes Perimetres Irriguésrdquo, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low
water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The
second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects
to redress the primary effects of desertification.
The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the
natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources
simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used
to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs.
Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could
potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than
the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management
policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual
ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and
ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food
production under a long-term drought.
2006
VENEVSKY, SERGEY
2006 ―A Method for Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate
Change in Siberian Forests: Example of Larch Area‖, in Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, Springer,vol 11, no. 1, January,
pp. 241-268
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Manejo de recursos forestales
Gobiernos
EUROPEO
Rusia
96
Resumen:
The conceptual scheme of integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate
change in Siberian forests is elaborated and applied to the extensive area in
Siberia covered by Larch forests. Forest stakeholders on the provincial level
are identified to be the most relevant for an integrated impact assessment.
Organisation of the assessment study as a combination of 'top-down' and
65
'bottom-up' approaches is suggested. Major biophysical vulnerability indexes
and regional syndromes are identified as the growing stock and current
increment averaged by administrative unit. Models and data suitability and
quality for an analysis of biophysical vulnerability in conditions of climate
change are studied for Siberian forests and future development trends are
identified. An application of the elaborated conceptual scheme, which
employs two models of different type and forest inventory data, is presented
for the Larch area.
2006
WARNER, JEROEN, MARÍA TERESA AORÉ
2006 ―El Niño platforms: participatory disaster response in Peru‖ in
Disasters, 30(1), Overseas Development Institute, pp. 102-117
Continente EUROPEO REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático; sequías e inundaciones asociadas con el fenómeno
climático El Niño
caso:
Implementación de políticas de manejo de recursos hídricos
Población en general
1998 AMERICANO
Perú Ica y Ayacucho
97
Resumen:
Climate change is expected to lead to greater extremes (droughts and floods)
in river regimes around the world. While the number of major calamities is
predicted to rise, the efforts of the public sector, experts and local
stakeholders are badly coordinated. Consecuently, aid does not reach target
groups, resulting in unnecessary losses. Hence, there is a need for more
participatory and integrative approaches. To ensure a more concerted
response to climate-induced disasters, stakeholders could coordinate and
negotiate within Multi-Stakeholders Platforms. Such roundtables are
increasingly being established for vision-building and integrated water
resource management, but could be employed in disaster management as
well. After discussing the advantages and disadvantages of participation, this
article trace the rise of and the problems facing two 'El Niño' platforms: one
in Ica, a city on the Peruvian coast that flooded unexpectedly in January
1998, and one in Ayacucho, which saw a climate change-induced drought
around the same time. The issue of internal and external legitimacy receives
particular emphasis.
1999
WHEATON, E.E., D.C. MACIVER
1999
―A Framework and Key Questions for Adapting to Climate
Variability and Change‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, Springer, vol 4, number 3-4, pp. 215-225
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
98
66
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Adaptación
Investigadores, líderes políticos y docentes
Resumen: There is a critical need to collectively understand, to develop adaptation
options to enhance the benefits, and to reduce the social and economic
vulnerabilities induced by climate variability and change. This paper uses key
questions to help build a framework for adaptation by first organizing the
questions into adaptation science, management and option components,
including their respective sub-categories. The process of adaptation depends
on many factors, including who or what adapts, what they adapt to, how they
adapt and what and how resources are used. This conceptual model is
designed to organize concepts regarding adaptation, to help stimulate ideas,
and to explore the linkages among parts of the adaptation cycle. Predictive
models need to be developed to determine the outcomes of planned
adaptation strategies. For the best and most realistic evaluation of climate
problems, adaptation and impacts should be considered together. This joint
approach improves the assessment of the significance and dangers of the
current and future climate, as well as the determination of solutions (e.g.,
how to prepare for a changing climate) and their priorities. Challenges of
adaptive management are discussed in terms of a framework with linkages to
adaptation science and options. Adaptation research and applications work
continue to build on the foundation of science and management frameworks
to address the risks and uncertainties in the decision-making process and to
identify adaptation options.
1997
WOLDE-GEORGIS, TSEGAY
1997 ―The Use of El Nino Information as Drought Early Warning in
Ethiopia‖, in Internet Journal of African Studies; No. 2 Department of Social
and Economic Studies, University of Bradford
Continente EUROPEO-REINO UNIDO
ED
Estudio de Sequía
caso:
Alerta temprana
Población en general
AFRICANO
Ethiopía
99
Resumen:
El Niño (EN) is the increase in the surface temperatures (SST) in the central
and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. EN results from changes in the pattern
and direction of winds and ocean currents in the region, which have
potentially catastrophic effects. There are also changes in atmospheric
pressure across the Pacific Basin between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti
called the Southern Oscillation (SO). The SO is the seesaw "in atmospheric
67
mass involving exchanges of air between eastern and western hemispheres . .
. with centers of action located over Indonesia and the tropical Southern
Pacific Ocean" (Trenberth 1991, 13-14). Thus, El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) is a coupled air and ocean phenomenon with global weather
implications. It is believed that ENSO is often associated with devastating
droughts in Northeast Brazil, Australia, parts of Africa, the failure of the
Indian monsoons, hurricanes along the east coast of North America, and so
forth (Glantz 1993, 4).
Many researchers now believe that the occurrence of various droughts in
Africa, especially in Southern Africa and the Horn, are caused by physical
processes related to the occurrence of ENSO events thousands of miles away.
If valid and reliable information about the linkages between these
occurrences becomes available, it could help to forecast Sub-Saharan African
droughts. Scientists believe that ENSO information can be useful for
developing regional drought early warning systems.
2001
WOLDE-GEORGIS, TSEGAY, D. AWEKE, Y. HAGOS
2001 ―Ethiopia country case study: Impacts and responses to the 1997-98
El Niño Event‖, in Glantz, M. H. (ed) Once Burned, Twice Shy? Lessons
Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño, United Nations University, Tokio
Continente ASIÁTICO-JAPÓN
ED
Estudio de Amenazas relacionadas con el clima, agua y tiempo, Huracanes,
inundaciones, calentamiento global, tsunamis, volcanes, etc.
caso:
Respuesta a amenazas climáticas
Población en general
AFRICANO
Ethiopía
100
Resumen:
The adage "once burned, twice shy" suggests that when someone has had a
bad experience, he or she is likely to shy away from being in the same
situation again, having better learned to deal with it. By analogy, do societies
that are forced to cope with recurring natural hazards learn from history?
This assessment reviews forecasts and societal impacts of the 1997-98 El
Niño. Underlying this review is a look at the climate-related early warning
and natural disaster preparedness systems in a number of countries with the
objective of improving their El Niño- and other climate-related coping
mechanisms. The following locations are targeted in this study: Bangladesh,
China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya,
Mozambique, Panama Canal, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru,
Philippines, and Vietnam. Based on the lessons drawn from these studies, key
research and policy needs are identified in this book.
Several ideas are presented for developing regional and national natural
disaster preparedness plans for coping with the impacts of El Niño Southern
Oscillations's warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events.
68
2009
WOLDE-GEORGIS, Tsegay, Michael H. GLANTZ
2009 ―Biofuels in Africa: A Pathway to Development?‖ in
(http://ccb.colorado.edu/pdf/Biofuels_in_Africa_ICEED_No.43_2009.pdf)
International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development.
Occasional Papers: #43
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio Climático
caso:
Economía-Energía
Agricultores
2009 AFRICANO
Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania
101
Resumen:
This paper investigates biofuels pathways and the potential outcomes of
biofuels development for energy security and poverty alleviation in Africa. It
also examines various options for biofuels development and its potential roles
to improve or undermine the livelihoods of rural communities.
2009
WOLDE-GEORGIS, TSEGAY, MICHAEL H. GLANTZ
2009
―Climate-based Malaria Early Warning System in Ethiopia.‖ in
Heads Up! Early Warning Systems for Climate, Water and Weather-related
Hazards. United Nations University, Tokio. ISBN: 978-92-8081169
Continente ASIÁTICO JAPÓN
ED
Estudio de Amenazas relacionadas con el clima, agua y tiempo, Huracanes,
inundaciones, calentamiento global, tsunamis, volcanes, etc.
caso:
Alerta temprana
Población en general
AFRICANO
Ethiopía
102
Resumen:
The forces of nature can have deadly and damaging consequences for
societies and ecosystems that stand in their path. Early warning systems offer
one of the best defenses against the adverse effects of climate, water, weather
and geologic hazards, although far too often this realization is made after
disaster strikes.
Heads Up! provides a useful review of early warning systems in operation
today, while exploring a range of hazards including hurricanes, heat waves,
floods, droughts, tsunami and volcanoes. With contributions from an
international team of scientists, this practical handbook serves as a valuable
contribution to our awareness and understanding of the role early warning
69
systems play in disaster avoidance and reduction.
2005
YE, QIAN
2005
―Living in between: Periurban and Wildland Interface Habitats‖, in
Know Risk, UNISDR-Tudor Rose, pp. 318-321
Continente Varios países
ED
Estudio de Riesgos en general
caso:
manejo de recursos naturales
Población en general
103
Resumen:
Knowing about risks that lead to disasters, understanding how they affect our
livelihoods and environment, and dedicating collective efforts to manage
those conditions are crucial to protect our lives, our possessions, our social
assets and indeed the land, water and natural resources on which human life
depends. This is the world of risk that Know Risk addresses.
Know Risk is a fully illustrated, 376 page book dealing with the risks
associated with natural hazards. Drawing on the experience of 160 authors it
is the product of an innovative public-private partnership between the ISDR
secretariat and Tudor Rose.
Resultado:
2003
YE, QIAN
2003 ―The Desert Affairs Program: An Initiative on Integrating Research,
Education, and Application for Sustainable Development in Arid and Semiarid Lands‖, in Proceedings, vol. 4890, pp. 230-266. DOI:
10.1117/12.465957 SPIE
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Sequía
caso:
Programas educativos interdisciplinarios
Investigadores, líderes políticos y docentes
Asia Central y Occidental
104
Resumen:
By recognizing the issues related with drought, desertification, diversity and
development, (i.e., the 4 Ds) in arid and semi-arid lands in Central and
Western Asia, The need of developing an interdisciplinary and environmentoriented education and training program, named ―Desert Affairs Program‖, is
discussed. Its aim is to train present and future researchers, policymakers and
educators for dealing with issues related to environmental science, impacts,
policy, economy and ethics in arid and semi-arid lands in Central and
Western Asia.
70
2005
YE, QIAN AND M. GLANTZ
2005
―The 1998 Yangtze Floods: The use of short-term forecasts in the
context of seasonal to interannual water resource management‖, in Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies of Global Change, 10(1), Springer, pp. 159-182
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Sistema de pronóstico meteorológico
Población en general
1998 ASIÁTICO
China
105
Resumen:
This paper reviews changes in the use of short-term climate information for
water management in China after the 1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River
basin. This devastating flood is now believed to have been caused mainly by
the 1997–98 El Niño event. Although the short-term climate forecasts and
weather forecasts are considered to be useful in planning for flood prevention
activities and for making key decisions during combating floods, the gap
between the meteorological services (producers of climate forecasts) and
water management agencies (users of climate forecasts) has grown in terms
of credibility given to climate forecasting: weather services put more efforts
on improving the technology for increasing forecast accuracy, whereas water
managers put their efforts and investment into upstream ecological
restoration and flood control systems. By reviewing the published and
lsquograyrsquo (unpublished) literature, we found that assessments of the
1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin really helped the central
government and water resources agencies to recognize the weaknesses of the
existing flood control system, the mismanagement in the ecological systems,
and the need for developing a national water resource management plan to
deal with the problems of lsquotoo much water, too little water, and very
polluted waterrsquo.
1999
YOHE, G., H. DOWLATABADI
1999
―Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for
Adaptation and Integration‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change, Springer, vol 4, number 3-5, pp. 319-329
Continente AMERICANO E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Cambio climático
caso:
Economía, Adaptación, Respuesta social
Población en general
106
71
Resumen:
This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change
under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will
likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems
have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change
will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the
sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations
that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in
response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of
adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those
decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All
plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological
approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of
advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not
at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the "tails" of the
distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying
methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be
encouraged and embraced.
2002
ZOLETA-NANTES, DORACIE. B.
2002
―Differential Impacts of Flood Hazards Among the Street Children,
the Urban Poor and Residents of Wealthy Neighborhoods in Metro Manila,
Phipippines‖, in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change,
Springer, vol 7, no. 3, pp. 239-266
Continente AMERICANO-E.U.A.
ED
Estudio de Inundación
caso:
Respuesta social-Economía
Población urbana
ASIÁTICO
Filipinas Manila
107
Resumen:
This paper presents thedifferential impacts of flood hazards amongstreet
children, the urban poor andresidents of wealthy neighborhoods in
MetroManila, Philippines. It argues that beingpoor is not the only reason why
certainsectors are more vulnerable to floods orany environmental hazards –
spatialisolation and lack of participation indecision making intensify their
presentand future vulnerability, as well. Archival research, interviews,
focusedgroup discussion, participant observationand surveys of populations
at risk areemployed to delineate the flood experiencesand coping strategies of
street childrenand residents of poor urban settlements andwealthy
neighborhoods in Metro Manila atthe household and community levels.
Theconcept of entitlement, the ContextualHazards Model, and the Access
Model areused in the data analysis andinterpretation. Several
policyrecommendations on hazard management anddisaster mitigation are
72
identified toreduce flood losses in Metro Manila.
73